Strong Growth in Brisbane
- Thread starter Andrew_A
- Start date
i just posted this in another thread - thought some of you watching the north west may be interested.
for those who like stats...here are some sales figures i have been working with today for another client - the figures are all sales for Alderley, Bridgeman Downs, Chermside West, Everton Park, McDowall, Mitchelton, Stafford and Stafford Heights
note that the median sale price hasn't changed much, but the numbers of sales has plummeted over the last couple of months. NB: not all the June sales will have been recorded yet.
........sales volume.....# of sales....median sale price
Jan....$77321501.........158.............$472000
Feb....$82821400.........164.............$476250
Mar....$53953749.........107.............$472500
Apr....$57422810.........111.............$470000
May....$38045873.........81..............$478000
Jun ....$10831000.........23..............$486500
cheers,
UC
for those who like stats...here are some sales figures i have been working with today for another client - the figures are all sales for Alderley, Bridgeman Downs, Chermside West, Everton Park, McDowall, Mitchelton, Stafford and Stafford Heights
note that the median sale price hasn't changed much, but the numbers of sales has plummeted over the last couple of months. NB: not all the June sales will have been recorded yet.
........sales volume.....# of sales....median sale price
Jan....$77321501.........158.............$472000
Feb....$82821400.........164.............$476250
Mar....$53953749.........107.............$472500
Apr....$57422810.........111.............$470000
May....$38045873.........81..............$478000
Jun ....$10831000.........23..............$486500
cheers,
UC
thx UC.
can you shed any light on days on the market and crashed contracts due to finance not approved?
I suppose those post codes are safe-ish with the big 4, though considering wages have gone nowhere, I presume the lenders are killing the higher LVR applications.
can you shed any light on days on the market and crashed contracts due to finance not approved?
I suppose those post codes are safe-ish with the big 4, though considering wages have gone nowhere, I presume the lenders are killing the higher LVR applications.
Urban cowboy:
That is consistent with what I am seeing my area of Brisbane. Volumes are way way down but prices continue to rise.
WW: I dont think its a problem with credit rationing, I think its a problem with buyer and seller confidence. I am pretty close to traditional serviceability thresholds at the moment and got a loan last week on a 97% LVR without a bat of an eyelid.
That is consistent with what I am seeing my area of Brisbane. Volumes are way way down but prices continue to rise.
WW: I dont think its a problem with credit rationing, I think its a problem with buyer and seller confidence. I am pretty close to traditional serviceability thresholds at the moment and got a loan last week on a 97% LVR without a bat of an eyelid.
hey WW...
mate i can only comment on our office in that regard, but we have not seen a contract crash all year on finance refusal.
from my perspective it is simply a direct effect of having a lot fewer buyers around. days on market have blown out in general - though we still are selling the odd one within a week. I have a few on the market that i have had for some time now...just can't get numbers through the door to generate a sale.
i will see if i can track down some stats on this, but every suburb is different too so it won't reflect the different areas.
The only other comment i can put forward is that of the small pool of buyers around - there is a fair percentage of those that read too many newspapers about doom and gloom and plummeting property prices and are putting in ridiculously low offers and just wasting everyones time. I am all for having a crack and being cheeky, but there comes a point when you realise being cheeky won't work and you need to come up a bit if you intend on getting the house. Digging your toes in and saying prices are coming down will not do much good around this area.
vent over - sorry, but i have been getting a lot of that lately
cheers
UC
mate i can only comment on our office in that regard, but we have not seen a contract crash all year on finance refusal.
from my perspective it is simply a direct effect of having a lot fewer buyers around. days on market have blown out in general - though we still are selling the odd one within a week. I have a few on the market that i have had for some time now...just can't get numbers through the door to generate a sale.
i will see if i can track down some stats on this, but every suburb is different too so it won't reflect the different areas.
The only other comment i can put forward is that of the small pool of buyers around - there is a fair percentage of those that read too many newspapers about doom and gloom and plummeting property prices and are putting in ridiculously low offers and just wasting everyones time. I am all for having a crack and being cheeky, but there comes a point when you realise being cheeky won't work and you need to come up a bit if you intend on getting the house. Digging your toes in and saying prices are coming down will not do much good around this area.
vent over - sorry, but i have been getting a lot of that lately
cheers
UC
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Thanks for the stats nc, the median price hasn't changed much, as you say, but it is still rising.
Regards Jo
VERY interesting UC!
How are you finding the vendors are reacting to the slump in demand there? I see a LOT of RE ads which imply the vendors are desperate to sell, especially for auctions - including the ones that get passed in. I do see the occasional "willing to meet the market"/"realistic vendor" especially for inner city units (& especially in SE QLD), but is it just a sales ploy?
Thinks in advance,
DoS
UC and Boomer, I meant finance rejection due to property asking price not being agreed to by the valuer/lender.....considering sellers always take a while to realize the market has softened.
WW...sorry for the confusion mate...
as yet i have not had one refused on finance due to val - part of that reason may well be that many valuers come to us anyway to get latest sales figures (i.e. stuff that hasn't hit RPdata yet). Actually now i think about it - the instance of valuers calling us for up to date sales data has increased of late - perhaps a sign that they are tightening up.
DoS, unfortunately many vendors are still believing that the halcyon days of high prices are still here - that you can still slap 50k on the price and sell with a few phone calls. Then they get really cranky when you bring them offers lower than what they expect (albeit around the correct market price) and blame you for not doing your job properly...
I lost a listing this afternoon with that very scenario - yet the offers i had are all bang on the price i quoted when i took the place on...
i personally have a big problem with those type of ads that say "desparate to sell" etc - given the law states we are required to obtain the best possible price for the vendor, how does advertising desperation achieve that??? or on the other side of the coin - is that a form of false advertising??? i don't know, but it doesn't sit right with me.
One agency i know of in nth bris slaps that slogan on every second house they have in one form or another...that's just not right.
as yet i have not had one refused on finance due to val - part of that reason may well be that many valuers come to us anyway to get latest sales figures (i.e. stuff that hasn't hit RPdata yet). Actually now i think about it - the instance of valuers calling us for up to date sales data has increased of late - perhaps a sign that they are tightening up.
DoS, unfortunately many vendors are still believing that the halcyon days of high prices are still here - that you can still slap 50k on the price and sell with a few phone calls. Then they get really cranky when you bring them offers lower than what they expect (albeit around the correct market price) and blame you for not doing your job properly...
I lost a listing this afternoon with that very scenario - yet the offers i had are all bang on the price i quoted when i took the place on...
i personally have a big problem with those type of ads that say "desparate to sell" etc - given the law states we are required to obtain the best possible price for the vendor, how does advertising desperation achieve that??? or on the other side of the coin - is that a form of false advertising??? i don't know, but it doesn't sit right with me.
One agency i know of in nth bris slaps that slogan on every second house they have in one form or another...that's just not right.
Interesting stats cowboy, thanks for sharing.
It exactly mirrors what is hapening here on the bayside around Wynnum/Manly. Market prices so far are holding up well - flat in 2008. But sales volumes have dropped severely.
So far vendors in general are not prepared to give their houses away except in the very rare case of a forced sale.
Interestingly, I have also noticed that the upper end of the market $800K - $1.2million is still doing very well - much better than the median type houses. Probably migration is the main reason with cashed up southerners or Qld coal miners??.
A flat market for a year or two will be a good result as I am confident we will see some growth in a few years. Time to increase my position I believe.
It exactly mirrors what is hapening here on the bayside around Wynnum/Manly. Market prices so far are holding up well - flat in 2008. But sales volumes have dropped severely.
So far vendors in general are not prepared to give their houses away except in the very rare case of a forced sale.
Interestingly, I have also noticed that the upper end of the market $800K - $1.2million is still doing very well - much better than the median type houses. Probably migration is the main reason with cashed up southerners or Qld coal miners??.
A flat market for a year or two will be a good result as I am confident we will see some growth in a few years. Time to increase my position I believe.
I just ran about 40 Brisbane suburbs through pdslive growth charts. It seems to me that (i) sale volume is way down right across the board, (ii) wealthy suburbs (eg New Farm, Hawthorne) are showing slight increases in median prices (Ascot shows a massive spike upwards - median price going from 900k to 1.6m in 3 months!), (ii) middle class areas are down slightly (Cannon Hill, Aspley) and (iii) less wealthy areas (Logan Central, Spring Hill, Rocklea) show modest decreases in median price (but not much different than the middle class areas).
This to me would be consistent with everything except the top end of the market stopping dead.
The only 2 surprises were Manly where median prices are well down and Inala where median prices are strongly on the rise. That being said its all on very low volume so hard to say its statistically reliable.
This to me would be consistent with everything except the top end of the market stopping dead.
The only 2 surprises were Manly where median prices are well down and Inala where median prices are strongly on the rise. That being said its all on very low volume so hard to say its statistically reliable.
Typing mistake Boomtown ? I would not classify Spring Hill a less wealthy area ...
Hmmm sure Spring Hill doesn't fall into the same category as Inala but...
I look at Spring Hill and I think students, recent immigrants to Australia and long term older residents. Although its very close to the CBD its still a bit daggy and mixes in with Bowen Hills and the Valley. Lots of heavy traffic and not much parks. I don't have the figures to prove it but I bet median income is relatively low for a suburb that close to the CBD.
I don't consider it particularly desirable - I have knocked back some fairly attractive yields not to invest there.
Happy to be educated about it further though - I may not realise what I'm missing.
I look at Spring Hill and I think students, recent immigrants to Australia and long term older residents. Although its very close to the CBD its still a bit daggy and mixes in with Bowen Hills and the Valley. Lots of heavy traffic and not much parks. I don't have the figures to prove it but I bet median income is relatively low for a suburb that close to the CBD.
I don't consider it particularly desirable - I have knocked back some fairly attractive yields not to invest there.
Happy to be educated about it further though - I may not realise what I'm missing.
It is interesting having a property for sale at the moment on Brisbane's Northside, I think my place has been on the market now officially for about 2 1/2 months and there is not even any offers despite being a good area brand new property. I'm just wanting a stupid offer...even 50% of what we want just so I at least have an offer on the table, but i truly believe its a numbers came and there is just not a lot of buyers around.
However we are in no rush to sell, its either rent or sell, if its rent we'll just stick up for sale the house my mum has moved into, no rush so that is why we are not worried.
However we are in no rush to sell, its either rent or sell, if its rent we'll just stick up for sale the house my mum has moved into, no rush so that is why we are not worried.
400k next stop
31-May-2008 H Brisbane 12.2964
30-Jun-2008 H Brisbane 12.1099
31-Jul-2008 H Brisbane 11.9759
-1.52% and
-1.11% for the last two months.
Brisbane median (h) $447,500
(u) 354,500
Residex housing data
And graphically displaying the data. Log prices for Brisbane houses since 1979. Residex housing data. I make it the first two months of downward movement in a row since 2000. Matusik has mentioned that lower quality stock is being sold in Brisbane presently which has an effect of lowering medians, though I'm not aware of the methodology Residex use for the house index, likely it's propietary anyhow.
Maybe not 400k quite yet for a Brisbane median, but there has been a slow down.Posted 20th Sep 07 ....
It's nearly mid-2008. Another 2 months and it will be mid July 2008. Need a $100K median price drop in 2 months ....
Let's keep this thread alive ... there is still a chance.
Lots more for sale around my area ... loads of open houses every weekend. Not sure when it will feed into prices.
31-May-2008 H Brisbane 12.2964
30-Jun-2008 H Brisbane 12.1099
31-Jul-2008 H Brisbane 11.9759
-1.52% and
-1.11% for the last two months.
Brisbane median (h) $447,500
(u) 354,500
Residex housing data
And graphically displaying the data. Log prices for Brisbane houses since 1979. Residex housing data. I make it the first two months of downward movement in a row since 2000. Matusik has mentioned that lower quality stock is being sold in Brisbane presently which has an effect of lowering medians, though I'm not aware of the methodology Residex use for the house index, likely it's propietary anyhow.
Attachments
Brisbane median August 2008 $447,500
Been three months of negative growth however.
Residex Housing Data Index.. Brisbane.
30-Sep-2007 H Brisbane 11.0068
31-Oct-2007 H Brisbane 11.3195
30-Nov-2007 H Brisbane 11.4618
31-Dec-2007 H Brisbane 11.568
31-Jan-2008 H Brisbane 12.0031
29-Feb-2008 H Brisbane 11.8484
31-Mar-2008 H Brisbane 12.0085
30-Apr-2008 H Brisbane 12.1644
31-May-2008 H Brisbane 12.2964
30-Jun-2008 H Brisbane 12.1099
31-Jul-2008 H Brisbane 11.9759
31-Aug-2008 H Brisbane 11.966
Brisbane Unit Prices Residex
31-Jan-2008 U Brisbane 9.40682
29-Feb-2008 U Brisbane 9.55344
31-Mar-2008 U Brisbane 9.80899
30-Apr-2008 U Brisbane 9.96141
31-May-2008 U Brisbane 9.99144
30-Jun-2008 U Brisbane 9.88715
31-Jul-2008 U Brisbane 10.0128
31-Aug-2008 U Brisbane 9.85551
I think its a bit harder to say units are down - they just look flat.
31-Jan-2008 U Brisbane 9.40682
29-Feb-2008 U Brisbane 9.55344
31-Mar-2008 U Brisbane 9.80899
30-Apr-2008 U Brisbane 9.96141
31-May-2008 U Brisbane 9.99144
30-Jun-2008 U Brisbane 9.88715
31-Jul-2008 U Brisbane 10.0128
31-Aug-2008 U Brisbane 9.85551
I think its a bit harder to say units are down - they just look flat.
