Property Prices Doubles in every 10 years rule
- Thread starter LoneWolf
- Start date
I can confirm that apartments in Port Macquarie did not double in value over the last ten years. They even went backwards a tad. Well, my one did, anyway.
Got to love exponentials!
Yep, same here. For 70 years too. So that's a real increase as well, as there hasn't been new kitchens added, a fourth bedroom, etc, etc. It's just dirt, exactly as it was 70 years ago.
Sale price. Regardless, the price for the seller has doubled, and the 8 new ones have diluted the median.
30 years you'd have had the same argument, but with different reasons. Now you're looking backward & appear to be saying that these are the only reasons that will allow growth to continue.
Can you look forward & think of some reasons why long term growth could continue ? Cash buyers, switch from stocks to IP post GFC, BBs inheriting $MM property & trading it up, cash from O/S, desire for clean air, HNWI immigration, natural pop growth, increased disposable income due to technology improvements, there must be a few more ?
It's only been possible to calculate stratified medians in the last few years. The headline median for a city is usually the simple median, not stratified. It will be interesting to see how the stratified medians differ from the simple median over the next 20 years.
Double every 10-15 years, yes is my guess (which is what we are doing, right?).
Just for the obligatory story, my parents house in Doubleview WA was $32k in 1983. Today, if it were still the original house on a full block, $800k.
Since subdivided, built a rear 4x2 two storey (avg spec) in 2000, front 3x2 single storey (high spec) in 2012.
Combined value today $1.5m, no mortgage owing and retirement looming.
Just for the obligatory story, my parents house in Doubleview WA was $32k in 1983. Today, if it were still the original house on a full block, $800k.
Since subdivided, built a rear 4x2 two storey (avg spec) in 2000, front 3x2 single storey (high spec) in 2012.
Combined value today $1.5m, no mortgage owing and retirement looming.
I think it would matter at this stage of the cycle where you buy and what you buy is very important ,,anything with high rise development longterm
in the inner 7-10 klmsCBD ring in Brisbane imho has not even started yet in price rises because most people don't care less that their property has been rezoned,or they reckon there is a simple law in statistics if you expect something to happen in the near future then you already have the same now,,law of iterated expectations..works very well on the ASX..
This being accurate is about as likely as property prices increasing at the same rate over the next 30 years (above income) as they have over the last 30
SMSF
Retirees (sp?) getting their hands on super
I'll agree that accurate forecasting is really hard - especially about the futureThis being accurate is about as likely as property prices increasing at the same rate over the next 30 years (above income) as they have over the last 30
Haha. Very good, sir.
I could not agree more. The things mentioned in the original post which drove up property prices were unforeseen so what is to stop this trend from continuing forever?
There is every chance in 30 years time someone will be on a forum (virtual forum probably where we will all be in a virtual room having this discussion) saying the exact same thing. Yeah prices only doubled though because of X change in technology and X change in the economy.
This is my non economist but based on logic view
It's always hard to imagine your property worth double in ten years, it's like omg, no way, more a psychological habit
That being said therr are going to be properties that 20% to 500% increase, but if the averageis ten years for example, then you can expect the average home to double, that's what average means
That being said again, if we follow that doubling table above, I too cannot imagine an averagevpropeety being worth 300m in 100 hundred years.
At some point there must be a stage where there might be no growth for ten years to slow the growth down
Also, there must be a point where due to inflation, $1000 is converted into $1' to avoid having to pay $10,000 to buy a loaf of bread like in Zimbabwe
I'm in two minds about the future, the world economy is pretty stuffed, Spain, Greece, Iceland, usa all seem pretty stuffed, even though some are recovering
All part of an economic cycle??? Maybe
Australia has come through quite unscathed, but I feel oz is not that stable, unemployment, mining downturn etc etc
A lot of property "experts" have said the years of doubling every yen years are now over due to various reasons, I kinda agree with them,
I think we are going to se probably more like doubling every 12-15 years type of cycles
It's always hard to imagine your property worth double in ten years, it's like omg, no way, more a psychological habit
That being said therr are going to be properties that 20% to 500% increase, but if the averageis ten years for example, then you can expect the average home to double, that's what average means
That being said again, if we follow that doubling table above, I too cannot imagine an averagevpropeety being worth 300m in 100 hundred years.
At some point there must be a stage where there might be no growth for ten years to slow the growth down
Also, there must be a point where due to inflation, $1000 is converted into $1' to avoid having to pay $10,000 to buy a loaf of bread like in Zimbabwe
I'm in two minds about the future, the world economy is pretty stuffed, Spain, Greece, Iceland, usa all seem pretty stuffed, even though some are recovering
All part of an economic cycle??? Maybe
Australia has come through quite unscathed, but I feel oz is not that stable, unemployment, mining downturn etc etc
A lot of property "experts" have said the years of doubling every yen years are now over due to various reasons, I kinda agree with them,
I think we are going to se probably more like doubling every 12-15 years type of cycles
When reading one of Jeremy Siegel's books about investments (mainly US stock prices and it's growth prospects) he talks about what will drive future prices and one of the main drivers he believes is going to be as Baby Boomers in Western world retire and cash in their assets investors from the East/Asia will step in and buy these assets.
You can clearly see how keen the Chinese are to buy Australia's assets (farm land/mines/residential housing) currently. This is only going to intensify as Chinese and Indian middle class wealth continues to expand over the coming several decades. I don't think there will be any shortage of investors with cash to buy quality assets from Western economies.
Cheers,
Oracle.
Some properties double in 2 years, some don't move for 10 years.
IN 2 years, not every 2 years. No property in the world has uniform growth every year. Hence why 10 years is oft-quoted as an 'average', it could of course take more years than that.