Pessamistic Old Fart

[Gee Cee]

I have not been here for a couple of yrs but have been dealing and investing since 1978. Seen 3 boom busts in that time.

Which have seen me go almost bankrupt a couple of times . Basically owing to a human instinct of GREED!

Gee I really do not know ! At present I cannot see any value at buying anywhere as a investment/ Unless you have a big income and buffer to cover costs etc. And pick something up at a mortagee auction for a absolute bargain.

I have looked at Gold Cst, Sunshine Cst, Perth, Melb etc in search of a better return than around Wollongong / Shoalhaven ? Sydney.

But with the present downturns in all areas; I really just think I will sit on the fence .

Bargains are out there, For Sure. If you are a first time buyer throw emotion and knock backs into the wind. Offer stupid prices . You may just pick up something at a bargain. If not then try again. If you can support the payments @ around 2015 you will be happy.

Property is a LONG term Investment.

You can trade and make big $$ . But if you get over excited at the premilary forcasts or profits and think it will go on forever you get burnt.
Maybe for me to say this in 9/2008 butit really was the same in 1982 and 1993. Follow the cycle. That is where $$ are made .

Just my humble opinion

Gee Cee

Greg

 

[MarkB]

Surely the term "cagey ancient b@stard" is more flattering?

......no?

 

[boomtown]

If Im going to be pessimistic for a minute Im seeing rents flatten and vacancy rates up slightly in inner Brisbane.

Vacancy rates have gone from under 1% to about 1.5% in the last 12 months - not sure what is driving that.

And I was getting used to seeing daily rent rises down at my local REA. Now rents havent moved for 3 - 4 months.

 

[ArJay]

So in your experience and opinion Greg, how long until the market turns around?

Is this time around really the same as previous downturns or do you see anything different?

R

 

[Dazz]

I have looked at Gold Cst, Sunshine Cst, Perth, Melb etc in search of a better return than around Wollongong / Shoalhaven ? Sydney.

But with the present downturns in all areas

Holy smokes Greg - that must be close on half a million properties you've "looked at".

Three questions if I may.....

1. What time frame are you talking about to have accomplished this massive undertaking ??
2. What is your exact definition of 'looked at' ??
3. What criteria were you using to sift opportunities with ??


I'm lucky to reach that sort of conclusion in my very small niche property market, in just one little pocket in one area of one city.


Any which way you look at it - you must be utterly exhausted.....I'm impressed, and yet at the same time depressed, if indeed those half a million properties spread across those 4 cities mentioned are all less than adequate.

 

[Gee Cee]

Thinking so

I think it will be similar though resourses may prop up some areas. Which may give good returns or false impressions. If imports from China cut back then our resourses are not needed so much. (Correct me if I am Wrong) This could certainly slow areas that have been riding that camel But I have no University degree in economics. Just see what is happening and try & get a feel for it. From previous experience I would be looking around 2013 onward. Who knows?
If I am right please praise me in 2015. If not just bag me at my funeral

 

[Gee Cee]

Double ya money

OK I guess I do not have the energy I use to have. The kidney transplant and constant self injections really tire me out.
I agree with you that there are opportunities out there to make $$. But If I am going to really put the amount of time and effort into it it needs to make good $$. With all the risk envolved I am certainly not going to just throw 20 yrs of building up assets & equity into the wind. This is ALL I do. I do not have a 9-5 job @ $100k a year.

I understand there are good buys out there. ( I will probaly come back in a few months and quote something that I have purchased at a bargain.) But as many asset rich/ Cashflow poor people have mentioned here. Land tax, rates , and interest rate rises along with real sale prices (Not BanK valuations) will very quickly send you to the wall.

OK I really am sure that there are bargains out there. Let us know the ones you don't want

Gee Cee

Heading Off to the beach at Killalea

 

[karina]

Hi Gee Cee,

Can you tell us more about your investing Journey since 1978? Having been through 3 property cycles I am sure you have lots of experience you can share with us less experienced investors that havn't seen more than 1 or 2 cycles.

 

[GoAnna!]

GeeCee what page are you in Jan Somer's book

 

[The Y-man]

But if you get over excited at the premilary forcasts or profits and think it will go on forever you get burnt.

Well stated. Sometimes you need blue sky forecasts - but man, it can get cloudy fast....

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[willair]

I have looked at Gold Cst, Sunshine Cst, Perth, Melb etc in search of a better return than around Wollongong / Shoalhaven ? Sydney.

Greg-Gee Gee..
That sounds like a line from a Slim Dusty song,just wondering do you use the old economic clock,or how to you pick the bottom of any cycle?
..willair..

 

[Sunfish]

Wasn't that Lucky Starr?

 

[The Y-man]

....from previous experience I would be looking around 2013 onward. Who knows?
If I am right please praise me in 2015. If not just bag me at my funeral

I just have this narking feeling at the back of my mind I'll be praising you. I think there is a place for an IP or two if people can comfortably afford it, but there is a sense of "something doesn't feel right" in the air right now.....

Cheers,

The Y-man


p.s. we can't bag you at your funeral if you don't send invites out....

 

[GreatPig]

Wasn't that Lucky Starr?

Look it up on your broadband.

Apparently it was written by Geoff Mack in 1959 and made famous by Lucky Starr in 1962 (according to Wikipedia).

GP

 

[Andrew_A]

Gee Cee. I have the same big picture view that you have, not a great time to be buying (Brisbane I'm thinking mainly), more of a time to be sitting, though if you have some value adding skills you can make money at any time potentially.

The question I have is... all of this is fine but if property is not a buy based on the swings and roundabouts and cycles then where do you park your cash?

 

[Gee Cee]

Go GoAnna

Try Page (Let me get my glasses) Page 37. then page 181.
Then page 161 for a reality twist. All true stuff.

Keep weelllll & sane!

Gee Cee

Greg

 

[jingo]

Try Page (Let me get my glasses) Page 37. then page 181.
Then page 161 for a reality twist. All true stuff.

Keep weelllll & sane!

Gee Cee

Greg

I don't have the book here! Can you provide a bit of info (even a shortened version) of what happens on those pages??

Would be interested to know.

Regards Jason.

 

[craigb]

Does the vacency percentage depand on the tourist,$ or not? most like i have realy tightened our belt and sorry, won't be going north this financial year!!
As we have chosen to try and save our house instead.

 

[sailor]

Does the vacency percentage depand on the tourist,$ or not?

I don't think it does in Cairns, because tourism is not our biggest earner. Biggest earners are mining and agriculture, and even tho our agriculture is seasonal, we cover most seasons due to the diversity of production.

 

[Peter 14.7]

Welcome Back Gee Cee

I remember your posts form when I was a "wet behind the ears" poster back in 2003.

Another informed opinion is always welcome.

Regards, Peter 14.7 ( previously Peter 147, why? sold Alfa and moved to cold climate, average daily temp for the year, get it?)