Melbourne set to boom (eventually).

[Garry K]

Article in todays Age by Tim Colebatch from Canberra.

Quotes Access Economics report.

Age report click here


Nothing startling, but nice to know the sky isn't falling.


GarryK

 

[slades]

Similiar story in yesterdays Sun Herald, prob same source!

 

[Michael Yardney]

The report is a little deceptive saying things will "boom" in 2009

The "boom" is the last stage of the property cycle and is usually the shortest stage.

At Metropole our research suggests prices will be flat through most of 2006-7 but some areas will have 5 - 7% increases.

Values will start to increase slowly over 2008, and should get to an overall 10% increase in 2009. It is likley Melbourne will have up tp 15% growth per annum for the first few years of next decade.

 

[thefirstbruce]

Michael, do you research other capitals i.e. Brisbane?

 

[hkr]

I am not sure about all these predictions till 2009(and even beyond ).

The thing is that there are so many events which can affect the prices of the property which we hardly know or control.

What happens if there is a major terror here or overseas in 2009, or interest rates go up considerably or unemployment rises......and so on.

Past performance is just no way to predict the future. I agree that prices will rise in long term but saying by x% in 2008 and y% in 2009 is premature.

Just my 2cents.

 

[Michael Yardney]

Michael, do you research other capitals i.e. Brisbane?

While l we get research from most of our statistical sources for interstate, we don't intensely analyse it as we are only active in the Melbourne market.

I know John Edwards from Residex believes Brisbane will pick up before Melbourne - mid next year but prices won't grow as sharply as Melbourne.

 

[Michael Yardney]

I am not sure about all these predictions till 2009(and even beyond ).

The thing is that there are so many events which can affect the prices of the property which we hardly know or control.

What happens if there is a major terror here or overseas in 2009, or interest rates go up considerably or unemployment rises......and so on.

Past performance is just no way to predict the future. I agree that prices will rise in long term but saying by x% in 2008 and y% in 2009 is premature.

Just my 2cents.

In looking to the future the past is still the best predictor.

Sure there will always be an X factor each year - something unpredicted and unforeseen - such as a terror attack or SARS or Bird Flu.

But the longer the past history, the longer the track record, the better you can make your predictions.

Future factors are taken into account such as immigration, migration, building starts, likely inflation, supply and demand, but sure they are guestimates.

Looking back at Melbourne figures today- monthly growth figures back to 1964 Melbourne has never had more than 2 quarters of negative price growth.

If this hasn't happened in the past when we have had recessions and 18% interest rates, it is unlikley to happen this time round.

 

[beech]

Looking back at Melbourne figures today- monthly growth figures back to 1964 Melbourne has never had more than 2 quarters of negative price growth.


hi Michael,is it possible to download this info to have a look at?
Never seen anything go back that far.

 

[Michael Yardney]

Looking back at Melbourne figures today- monthly growth figures back to 1964 Melbourne has never had more than 2 quarters of negative price growth.


hi Michael,is it possible to download this info to have a look at?
Never seen anything go back that far.

You are correct, very few people have data going this far back.

I've been doing a lot of research for my new book out next year -"How to grow a multi million dollar property portfolio in your spare time."

You'll see the figures there early next year

 

[DavidMc]

I've been doing a lot of research for my new book out next year -"How to grow a multi million dollar property portfolio in your spare time."

Fantastic! Looking forward to the book Michael.

 

[kissfan]

I've been doing a lot of research for my new book out next year -"How to grow a multi million dollar property portfolio in your spare time."

You'll see the figures there early next year

Hi Michael.

Hope you let us all know when the book is out.

Regards
Marty

 

[Peter 14.7]

Hi All

From what I have read it appears Melbourne , havin gbeen the first to slow, may be the first to rise?

The bottom is here it would assume where Sydney is still inconsistent being fractured market.

FYI a friend recently bought in Brisbane for $125k and getting $170 a week.

Peter 147

 

[beech]

I've been doing a lot of research for my new book out next year -"How to grow a multi million dollar property portfolio in your spare time."

Look forward to it.