What data source is reliable? Your
anecdotal 'doomers and gloomers' indicator?
So how about the charts from AFR & Christopher Joye (or are they also tainted)?
http://www.afr.com/p/business/property/house_prices_flash_red_record_debt_MPI3fve6eztNMyT62R4P1J
Is there any data that would make you believe that prices are too high or can't continue to rise as they have in the past or would it literally take the alien invasion you mention?
It is telling sign when the primary response from some users in the thread are ad hominem attacks. No interest in backing up the argument that prices can continue to outpace inflation or incomes forever? Oh...
While I concede the point that prices that can't outprice inflation indefinitly , I'd consider this a moot debating point and of no practical application when it comes to the day to day process of investing in property which is the reason why most people are on this forum . ( rather than investing in debating points which seems to be your target , though I apologize in advance if I'm wrong about that )
The reality is that statistics, when studied in relation to economics , is a mathematical analysis of the behavior of peoples actions . By it's very nature it is a trailing indicator , telling us what has happened , rather than what is going to happen . Obviously , given the tendency for the masses to react in fairly predictable ways , analysis of statistics can give us a good way of predicting what is likely to happen.
As someone who has an interest in Bullion you would be aware that this can be useful , though at times a frustrating area of study. Myself along with many other people on this planet have spent way too much time analyzing statistics applied to the share market........
I have found that basic share techniques are very useful when applied to the property market and over the last ten years I have seen more and more information become readily available.
What I've also noticed over this period of time is that this forum is a very good way of finding out what is
going to happen in the short term in the property market.
Before people take action , they talk about it and discuss it with their friends. .
Where do property investors talk about property and discuss it with their friends ?
Here . Somersoft.
That's why I'm here. To listen and learn . I do get sometimes involved in somewhat meaningless debates which have no practical application to my property investing , but sometimes those meaningless debates result in a degree of clarification of certain aspects of property investing . ( in this situation the bits highlighted in bold ) .
Every market consists of a wide range of participants who bring their wide range of opinions and different levels of commitments to the table. If there wasn't that divergence things would be much more organised and predictable , which they obviously aren't.
Thank you Hobo for bringing your opinion and commitment to the table .
Looking back over the last cycle I can recall discussions with experts in every market I invested who questioned the decisions of forumites to invest in those markets.
Most people who invested in Rocky will recall a local REA who was a gold buff but didn't see the gold he was walking on .... " Rocky prices don't go up , Why would you buy here .... " .
We need Doubters ( certainly at the moment , at this early part of the cycle ) . When everyone is fully committed to the market and there are no doubters left and no new participants coming on board , then , that is the time to be careful . So the fact we have high profile doubters in abundance only gives me more confidence that the market has a way to go. As the market continues to move , people who have listened to them will start panicking about missing out and rush to get in at a time when it have become obvious what has happened. The smart people on this forum are already fully committed and waiting on the sidelines watching their profits grow.
If you are here to actually learn about property investing , rather than earning debating points ,
you would be foolish to glibly ignore anecdotal evidence. It is a leading indicator and the results of it's analysis don't appear on any graphs that I know of.
Cliff