from the battlefront - volume down

[GIDDO]

A tidbit of info that may not mean diddly for your particular area.
Not a forecast for the next few months either. It is the low season here.

One individual RE office in Toowoomba

April 08 24 sales

May 08 8 sales

June 08 3 sales so far, as at 14th June

What does this mean? Dunno. You tell me?

Maybe it just means the petrol for the REA's Mercedes is more difficult to afford this month?

 

[Rockstar]

A tidbit of info that may not mean diddly for your particular area.
Not a forecast for the next few months either. It is the low season here.

One individual RE office in Toowoomba

April 08 24 sales

May 08 8 sales

June 08 3 sales so far, as at 14th June

What does this mean? Dunno. You tell me?

Maybe it just means the petrol for the REA's Mercedes is more difficult to afford this month?

Hi Giddo,

It means that times are tough for REA's especially those who have not put money away for the quiet times. I kept telling an agent who I am close to that he should be saving his pennies instead of taking holidays every couple. of months. Now he is thinking of laying off good staff. Same old story of folks who get carried away during the good times and don't budget for the slow times.

Cheers, Ian

 

[FHB]

Many of the REAs in my area were already doing it tough last year, when prices were booming, mainly due to low stock and high demand. Most of the offices were dropping staff mid way through the year.

This year its the opposite, but turnover for the REAs is still very low.

 

[andrewd]

Which real estate was this in Toowoomba?

My opinion on the massive slowdown in sales figures is indicative of a recession lurking just around the corner. Prepare people this is going to hurt big time, especially with oil price getting to $2 a litre, inflation spiralling out of control and record number of bankrupts and foreclosures. One only needs to look at the share market this year which has dived 30% as an early indicater of what will happen to house prices...not good.

 

[kissfan]

One individual RE office in Toowoomba

April 08 24 sales

May 08 8 sales

June 08 3 sales so far, as at 14th June

Hi Giddo.

What are the sales figures compared to listings figures, i.e, maybe there are also fewer listings, therefore sales would be down. Still, those figures must be of concern to the agency.

Perhaps, possible vendors are holding off until the market returns to some type of normality.

Regards
Marty

 

[BayView]

Which real estate was this in Toowoomba?

My opinion on the massive slowdown in sales figures is indicative of a recession lurking just around the corner. Prepare people this is going to hurt big time, especially with oil price getting to $2 a litre, inflation spiralling out of control and record number of bankrupts and foreclosures. One only needs to look at the share market this year which has dived 30% as an early indicater of what will happen to house prices...not good.

This sounds more like a news headline statement.

Yes, it is up from normal, hence the rate rises of late, but "spiralling out of control"?

A recession means nothing to you or I as the average Mr. Thong on the street in our normal lives. In real translation it means more than one (or is it 2) quarters in a row of neg economy growth. It's only a big deal for the Govt wanting to get re-elected.

Life goes on as normal, with less houses being sold and a few more job losses. That is common-place these days anyway.

Petrol will go up for sure, but it's only going to worry the people who are financially out of control. It's all their own doing.

 

[Rolf Latham]

visions of 2003

The volume vacuum...............

Buyers arent willing to pay the bit extra that vendors want.

One or both will entuallly give and volumes will start flowing again, ONCE a bit more consumer confidence comes back.

ta
rolf

 

[andrewd]

You blokes can't be serious...
Shrugging off what I said as just nothing but news talk...lol...then again what more should I expect from a property forum.
Don't say I didn't warn you

Maybe property crash gets your attention more than a recession. Things will hit hard as unemployment skyrockets pushed even further by more company collapses (as indicative by the share market) and hyperinflation. Say goodbye to the banking system as we know it today with a number of financial institutions going under. Its all supply and demand...need I say more.

As for the statements, "Life goes on as normal, with less houses being sold and a few more job losses. That is common-place these days anyway."
What a load of crap...last recession was back in 1991 to 1992. That's only 16 years ago (when interest rates were 18%)...lol...you haven't a clue the effects of a recession. Especially since recessions are meant to happen every 7 years. So expect a double-blow recession (that is the effects of 2 recessions hitting in a row).

Oh and for the record, I did have 23 properties, which I have nearly all sold except one still to go. I'm so glad i'm out before the crash unravels.
Better to take the profit at the top of the cycle and get back in at the bottom, when prices fall 30% as expected by the IMF (international monetary fund).

 

[Rolf Latham]

I suspect the good thing about unemployment rocketing is that this is an indirect RBA measure.........thus cash rates should plunge ( I assume this would the opposite of rocket ?)

Some are predicting a 30 % fall in values, some 15 %, some 50 %, some by 5 % and some expect to be able to buy Beach front blocks for 50 000................reality may be different, and only time and patience will tell.

ta
rolf

 

[andrewd]

Ok Rolf,
I respect your comments...but i really believe we are in for a 30% fall.
Again main reason being that the IMF (International Monetary Funds) has stated house prices in Australia are over-valued by 30%.

They are the absolute peak body in fundamental analysis and economic monitoring. If they don't know, then no-one knows.
Whatever they say I take as gospel in the financial world that is.

 

[keithj]

...but i really believe we are in for a 30% fall.
Again main reason being that the IMF (International Monetary Funds) has stated house prices in Australia are over-valued by 30%.

Being pedantic......
...if they are 30% overvalued, then a 23% fall will bring them back to 'correct' value.

So one possible scenario - assuming inflation is 4%pa (compounded), then 5 yrs of 0% growth will bring them back to 'the IMFs opinion of correct value'.

Do you see them all falling by 25% by next week, or a more drawn out decline in prices over a few years (eg 5 yrs), or something in between ?

Some here agree with you, but don't really think it's a big deal - it's all a normal part of the cycle. Remember the 1990s - virtually no growth for 10 years coupled with high inflation - it adds up to huge falls in real price..... but actualt prices didn't fall.



And tell us about those 23 properties you bought (& sold)... were they acquired over several cycles ? Were you around in the early 90's... what is different/similar to todays environment ?

 

[Hdb]

Ok Rolf,
I respect your comments...but i really believe we are in for a 30% fall.
Again main reason being that the IMF (International Monetary Funds) has stated house prices in Australia are over-valued by 30%.

They are the absolute peak body in fundamental analysis and economic monitoring. If they don't know, then no-one knows.
Whatever they say I take as gospel in the financial world that is.

What the IMF actually said is discussed in this thread.

The IMF, which says Australian property is among the most overvalued in the developed world, has warned that about 25 per cent of the increase in house prices between 1997 and 2007 cannot be explained by fundamental economic factors such as population growth and income, The Australian Financial Review reports today.

According to the calculations Alexlee made there IMF are not saying Australian house are 25% over valued but somewhere between 15%-20%. http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40910&highlight=IMF

 

[Rolf Latham]

HIya

And not surprisgly you have sold your stock, looking to either get in at the below 30 % mark or staying out altogether.

Its ok, there is no right or wrong, since no one can predict what may happen tommorow..................history is your best, but imperfect guide.

We all need to make decisions based on our current thinking.


ta
rolf

 

[JIT]

I did have 23 properties, which I have nearly all sold except one still to go. I'm so glad i'm out before the crash unravels.

With the all that CGT/sales costs...you'd probably need a crash to come out in front.

We all know no. of properties is irrelevant anyway.

How much was your gross total portfolio worth?

 

[MichaelW]

You blokes can't be serious...
Shrugging off what I said as just nothing but news talk...lol...then again what more should I expect from a property forum.
Don't say I didn't warn you

We all know no. of properties is irrelevant anyway.

How much was your gross total portfolio worth?

C'mon guys,

You've all been around here for a while. Do you actually believe any of this shiny brand new poster stuff? Every day there seems to be a new poster turn up and instantly lead with doom and gloom. Scratch the surface even a little bit and they start being disparaging of property investors. It doesn't take a Mensa to figure it out.

What, he leads with "then again what more should I expect from a property forum," thereby being dismissive of property investors generally then follows up with how he's a gun property trader who's moved 22 properties recently... And you believe him?!!

I am 99.9% certain that there's a whole lot of our good ol' GHPC friends here at the moment stirring the pot. I'm pretty certain that a couple have probably racked up at least half a dozen new nic's each.

Doesn't matter really. My B/S filter is pretty well calibrated now so I can look through their posts without even really noticing them. I don't have anyone on ignore because its actually just easier to filter it post by post. If I had them on ignore they'd just start posting under a new nic anyway.

Ciao,
Michael

 

[ianvestor]

If [the IMF] don't know, then no-one knows.

I agree, no-one knows.

 

[ArJay]

Oh and for the record, I did have 23 properties, which I have nearly all sold except one still to go.

Zing....!!!!!!

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

I agree with Michael about feeding the troll.

Though I think this quote from Andrew is a beauty......

recessions are meant to happen every 7 years

I must have missed that book where everything is laid out so neatly for everyone.

Here is a challenge for you Andrew, prove that statement of yours, or be totally disbelieved on this forum.

bye

 

[andrewd]

Some people...seriously.

1) Michael don't you dare generalise me as another one of those trolls trying to stir the pot. Isn't a person allowed to have their say. I thought we lived in a free and civilised world. Obviously you don't want to hear what I have to say because you are either a real-estate agent, broker or some other industry person who has a self-interest in property prices remaining high. Fundamentally though this is impossible. The rapid and unrealistic growth in house prices has caused a bubble so guess what one of the principle laws of economics says...for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

2) As for my rental properties, all sold between the range of $380K to $730K with average of $520K. Now yes this has brought about Capital Gains (CG) but I have progressively and strategically sold all in a manner as to limit CG and superannuation benefits. Not to boast or anything but with over $5Mill in the bank locked away i'm feeling pretty secure.

3) I take back what I said about the recession being every 7 years (was thinking business cycle). Historically speaking they have happened every 8-10 years.

4) I still stand by my research of a 30% drop in property values. Might come in at 25% or so but yeah will be a massive decline either way.

As for Rolf and other mortgage brokers I don't envy your position. Have heard talk of mortgage broker numbers to halve so I feel for you in trying to financially survive these economic times.

 

[seank]

You blokes can't be serious...
Shrugging off what I said as just nothing but news talk...lol...then again what more should I expect from a property forum.
Don't say I didn't warn you

Maybe property crash gets your attention more than a recession. Things will hit hard as unemployment skyrockets pushed even further by more company collapses (as indicative by the share market) and hyperinflation. Say goodbye to the banking system as we know it today with a number of financial institutions going under. Its all supply and demand...need I say more.

As for the statements, "Life goes on as normal, with less houses being sold and a few more job losses. That is common-place these days anyway."
What a load of crap...last recession was back in 1991 to 1992. That's only 16 years ago (when interest rates were 18%)...lol...you haven't a clue the effects of a recession. Especially since recessions are meant to happen every 7 years. So expect a double-blow recession (that is the effects of 2 recessions hitting in a row).

Oh and for the record, I did have 23 properties, which I have nearly all sold except one still to go. I'm so glad i'm out before the crash unravels.
Better to take the profit at the top of the cycle and get back in at the bottom, when prices fall 30% as expected by the IMF (international monetary fund).

ok so you personally take IMF's words as gospel. Based on this article just released by the IMF which says the US will NOT go into recession do you retract your comments on Aust going into recession, and if not why?
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=584028&_cobr=optus