Forecasting - Harry Dent style

[Garry K]

Harry Dent is a well known US forecaster who bases his forecasts on historic trends.

In particular, he uses demographics, and has correlated the DOW to the advent and spending patterns of Baby boomers, using an age lag.

His October newsletter talks about the next big bull share market, about to start any day.

He is big on following housing trends also, and offers the following.

"From 1995 to 2000, 11 times as many 20 – 29 year
olds moved out-of-state (almost 2.5 million) vs.
retirees 60 – 69 (around 220,000). It is clearly young
people and new households that drive migration
trends and the echo boom will dominate these trends
over the next 15 years plus, not the baby boomers."


Perhaps those dockland apartments will make a comeback if Harry is correct?
Perhaps the sea change has had its run?


Its an interesting report 22 pages, and the October issue can be viewed free here:

HS Dent -click here


There are some quite amazing correlations between the past and now.

But, like statistics, it is sometimes possible to show any outcome you like if you look hard enough, and are selective.

Generally, I think he has some credibility.


GarryK

 

[Michael Yardney]

Harry Dent's forecasts in his books have been pretty accurate.

I have just read his last book "the next great bubble boom."

It makes interesting reading, but is mainly American orientated.

For example - here in Australia we have had a sea change. In the USA the baby boomers are moving to the deserts.

 

[Peter 14.7]

A quick read state that Gold will top put at $500 to $505 and drop back to $459. I think today is around $525?!?!?

Having posted this point it is a good read so thanks for the link.

Peter 147

 

[stretchy]

Harry Dents forecasts have been pretty accurate? This is the same guy that predicted the Dow would hit 36000 back in the dot.com craze?

I would hardly call him accurate, more like a perma-bull. He is an eternal optimist; certainly has some interesting viewpoints, but you have to take his ideas with a fairly large lump of salt.

Check the book he wrote in 1999:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0684862328/102-6840695-1195316?v=glance&n=283155

For an opposing view try reading books by Robert Shiller, who pretty much picked the top of the US share market boom in 2000 with his book "Irrational Exuberance". He has a new book out as well.