According to that data, the SVR has ranged from 1.01% above my 5.59% fixed rate to 0.06%-0.33% below - i.e. during the time the SVR was below the fixed rate, it was below by an insignificant amount, whereas the time spent above was by a much larger margin. I also fixed some loans at 5.39% and 4.99% by the way, and kept some variable. Overall, I benefited by fixing (across all my fixed rates), but probably lost a small amount on the 5.59% loan itself.
Those were some I dug up in around 20 minutes a couple of years back... I'm sure someone who had time to go through all your posts (& no doubt mine) would have a field day by cherry picking out wrong guesses/predictions, just as you've done with those in the chart.
There would be heaps more that I got wrong. I only have an 80-90% success rate with my predictions, and I make
a lot of predictions, so the 10-20% that I get wrong would still amount to a huge number of predictions in total. But I've found that an 80-90% success rate is sufficient to profit from, especially when I only put money on the ones I'm very confident about (like the $1M Sydney median by 2015).
In any case, I'm just an anonymous guy who posts on a forum. Any incorrect predictions I made are pretty much irrelevant and based upon trivial stuff like interest rate movements, or house price growth for an individual year etc.
Whereas the people quoted in my chart are all high-profile public figures whose predictions attracted a huge amount of media attention and who were very public with their sensationalist forecasts of imminent massive 40% to 60% crashes, severe recessions, bloodbaths, catastrophes, disasters, economic carnage etc.
A lot of people would have been swayed by their calls. I know of many people who sold up in 2008 based on Steve Keen's 40% crash call, and more who sold up in 2011-2012 when Macrobusiness were going hard with their crash calls (their articles were being published by Fairfax and News Ltd. with predictions of a decade of nominal declines etc.) Innocent people would have lost a lot of money as a result. The doomsayers who led these people up the garden path deserve to be exposed and taken to task.
On the other hand, my incorrect call on interest rates in 2012 would have zero impact to anyone... it was just a bit of trivial forum banter.