Not if they're gonna cut rates further.
Waiting for the ABS capex data today and latest GDP next week...
Waiting for the ABS capex data today and latest GDP next week...
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It only appears that way on the chart above because of the linear scale.
In percentage terms, the most recent rise is smaller than earlier rises - i.e. a doubling of prices on the right of the chart displays as a steeper line than a doubling of prices on the left of the chart.
In fact, if you look at Stapledon's actual data, the earlier rises were much stronger. Prices more than tripled in the decade from 1972 to 1982.
Not if they're gonna cut rates further.
Let's just say people in Hong Kong made similar predictions in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014. All have been caught out.
The rise of China is something that I think is so hard to quantify.
I'm not a seasoned property investor (I have a PPOR without mortgage), but have followed the market with interest for a long time.
Waiting for the market to crash during that long time?
Let's just say people in Hong Kong made similar predictions in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014. All have been caught out.
The rise of China is something that I think is so hard to quantify.
National house price statistics is useless.
People should call whether it's over in Syd Mel Bri etc.
In essence I think Keen's premise was right, he was just early
This will need to be managed critically by the RBA and Govt and will require the Govt debt balance to dramatically increase (which is not necessarily a bad thing).
Unfortunately I don't see that happening because the Governement have dug themselves a hole. Thanks to politicians the majority of Australian's are convinced that the Federal Budget/Public Debt is the same as household debt. It's a nice narrative even if it's not true.
This assumes real house price growth is an exponential function @ 3.1%pa. I don't think it will turn out to be... to many fundamentals stacking up against the next 25+ years being like the last 50 years
I have an updated version...Hmm...
An oldie, but a goodie:
http://christopherjoye.blogspot.com.au/2011/12/debunking-steve-keens-predictions.html