Umina Beach - Central Coast NSW

Hi Guys

Just wondering if we have any central coast locals/investors online?
I can't see whats wrong with this place (Umina beach)

On the southern end of the central coast, so very close to jumping on the freeway, or close to Woy Woy station for a quick commute to Sydney.

Beaches/bushland/relaxed lifestyle/and an ok commute to Sydney (express trains run from Woy Woy via the North Shore line to North Sydney or via Strathfield to central) - all in just over 1 hr

House pricing: 3 bed/brick veneer/10mins walk to Umina Beach...mid $300's!!

Surely this place has a future?

Any comments?

Any tips appreciated!

cheers
Sam

Sam_H,

I have 5 IPs on the Central Coast. All near water (lakes mostly).

If I had the funds to do more I definitely go for more beach-side like Umina & the many others up here.

CG long term has to be great IMHO.

Aimy

Isn't there a crime problem in Umina?

Aimy

Appreciate your response

I have several friends who grew up on Sydneys northern beaches, have been priced out and now live on the central coast and rave about it

There does seem to be a lot of properties on the market in Umina....any ideas why?

Any ideas about the promised fast ferry from Ettalong?

Cheers


Sam

Sam_H said:

There does seem to be a lot of properties on the market in Umina....any ideas why?

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It is Springtime perhaps? Mortgage stress? Tsunami fears (its flat & near the beach). Older people dying off (it was full of retirees) I don't know - just joshing ya!

Sam_H said:

Any ideas about the promised fast ferry from Ettalong?

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Yup, may happen may not - been going for ages. Like the shampoo advert - won't happen overnight but it will happen (probably)

Cheers


Aimy

twobobsworth said:

Isn't there a crime problem in Umina?

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Isn't there one is Mosman too? or Cabramatta, or Bondi.

Everywhere has its problems. You'll only hear about the sensational stuff in the media.

I don't think its any worse than anywhere else. Happy to be corrected if I'm off on this.

Aimy

Sam_H said:

Hi Guys

Just wondering if we have any central coast locals/investors online?
I can't see whats wrong with this place (Umina beach)

On the southern end of the central coast, so very close to jumping on the freeway, or close to Woy Woy station for a quick commute to Sydney.

Beaches/bushland/relaxed lifestyle/and an ok commute to Sydney (express trains run from Woy Woy via the North Shore line to North Sydney or via Strathfield to central) - all in just over 1 hr

House pricing: 3 bed/brick veneer/10mins walk to Umina Beach...mid $300's!!

Surely this place has a future?


Any comments?

Any tips appreciated!

cheers
Sam

Click to expand...

Hi Guys

What a surprise! We have been found. Although the high flyers bought weekenders over the hill at Pearl Beach. People like Andrew Denton, David Hill,Jeannie Little, David Williamson, John Singleton, the list goes on.

We have been residents and business owners in Umina for over 24 years. We came here from the Northern Beaches as a young couple with child, and another on the way. Myself and two older brothers owned the Umina Beach Newsagency from 98 to 2004. It's a good place to live, I love it. We do get bad press frequently, because of a small segment of troubled youth. I used to wrap papers in the early hours of the morning 24/7, and we saw a bit of trouble, but usually the Police moved them on. Club closing time was always the peak time for trouble. But the cops had it in hand. Kudos to those guy/gals. We have a large retirement population, and they can get a bit anxious. Often overplayed.
We owner built our PPOR on the hill overlooking the town and waterways back in 83. The block was $26,500 the house was $35,000. We turned it into a duplex in 88 and recently had it revalued at $620,000. This could be higher as we have yet to do some small reno work to it.
When we came here, you could buy a waterfront with wharf at Booker Bay for $120,000. In fact, we bought a block just below us for $8,500 on the hillside in 84. It was on for $10k and even in the midst of a recession, we just thought that this was the most amazing bargain. So we hocked ourselves beyond our eyeballs and struggled on.

We have had many expat friends sayiing exactly what you have said. These people were cashed up and moving in here, for the very reasons you have stated. The fast ferry fiasco, that was meant to be running from Ettalong to Circular Quay, sank without a trace. It couldn't work, as the cost could only be borne by the Govt, making huge losses.

Job oppotunities are scarce, but most commute anyway. I love the close proximity to Sydney. As an investor, we have always used the buy and hold strategy, and history tells us we have done well.

So in answer to your question Sam, yes this place has very good prospects.

Often opportunities are overlooked, when they are right in front of your face.

Cheers
pendo

I love Umina. It is a fantastic location in terms of proximity to Sydney. We holiday there there every year. Roll on November!

Seems to have been a fair bit of spruiking about Umina beach in a few threads of late. Any particular reason why? If past performance is any reflection on likely future performance then 3.4% total growth over the past 8 years is more like a reason NOT to invest than to invest there. That is unless you're gambling on the next couple of years going gangbusters to make up for the underwhelming past performance. The operative word their being gambling.

If memory serves me correctly Margaret Lomas is a relative local to the area, but claims that whilst it is a great place to live for the lifestyle benefits, the investing fundamentals simply aren't there.

Just my take on the area, but the OP asks for opinions so thought I'd chip in to balance what has seemed a bit of an imbalance on the area of late.

How is 3.4% measured exactly? That's is negative growth, taking into account 3-4 % inflation per year for 8years.

I see places selling there now that are less than comparable prices in the 2003 boom. Nothing has happened since then.

I read this post after I posted in another Umina thread. There is little to no growth in the area. I've been waiting 20 years for the area to be 'discovered', be gentrified and take off. It's a beautiful area but there are so many social problems, it just aint going to happen.

By the way, Lomas lives at least half an hour away from Umina in a higher socio economic area. Umina is a very low socio area with many people on benefits, un married mums, housing commission and retirees. It also has a pretty bad drug and alcohol problem. Not to mention bunches of drunk teenagers roaming the streets every weekend as there is nothing for them to do.

And yet we have people with more experience than you, 28yrs living there which is more than your 8yrs, who see it quite differently.

But you would know because you've lived there and you know......

Give it up Evand we know your opinion now no need for the relentless repetition please.

I have even lived on the central coast longer than you and see it very different to you mate, like the mnay others on here attesting.

But we don't count becuase we don't have as many green dots as you do as you have so eloquently pointed out. I never knew you treasured your green dots so much but there ya go...

mrmonopoly said:

Seems to have been a fair bit of spruiking about Umina beach in a few threads of late.

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Actually I don't think it is so much spruiking as it is 1 poster reviving a few old threads from way back in 2007 by the looks, followed by several responses by the Chinese Investor - WhitePanda (who seems a bit keen on the area for the rental yield he's getting from a house upstairs, flat downstairs and a cabin out the back.

mrmonopoly said:

Any particular reason why?

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I'm guessing the OP has been on a holiday to the beach and is looking at the local RE market (as you do)

evand said:

I see places selling there now that are less than comparable prices in the 2003 boom.

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evand is quite correct in this. See chart. Prices are much the same as they were at the peak of boom in 2003. CG has since been:
2004 +1.9%
2004 -4.7%
2006 -2.1%
2007 -0.3%
2008 -3.4%
2009 +2.4%
2010 +10.1% (people were starting to buy up big at this point)
2011 -5.3%

evand said:

Nothing has happened since then.

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CG-wise this is right BUT the thing that has happened since then is that rents have gone up significantly.

Mate, what are you on about? Green dots?

I was born on the Woy Woy peninsula and lived there before my family moved to Sydney. I was regular there for holidays since then, and moved permanently to south Umina in 2000 and lived there till Dec 2008. I have plenty of friends and relos still in the area. I have kept a constant eye on the property market since I first bought a house there in 1989 on Brisbane Rd. Umina.

Now, let's see your form on Umina (not the central coast as it a huge area)?

I tell it as it is. And that's how it is. The demographics tell the stry of the people and the statistics tell the story of the property there.

If you'd like to come up with an alternative view, please do. But please leave out the childish comments about green dots etc

The Fence said:

And yet we have people with more experience than you, 28yrs living there which is more than your 8yrs, who see it quite differently.

But you would know because you've lived there and you know......

Give it up Evand we know your opinion now no need for the relentless repetition please.

I have even lived on the central coast longer than you and see it very different to you mate, like the mnay others on here attesting.

But we don't count becuase we don't have as many green dots as you do as you have so eloquently pointed out. I never knew you treasured your green dots so much but there ya go...

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Yields would be still around 5% on the peninsula. Always hover around there due to lack of rental demand (very low income area) and no cap growth.

Not a great yield considering negative growth.

Propertunity said:

evand is quite correct in this. See chart. Prices are much the same as they were at the peak of boom in 2003. CG has since been:
2004 +1.9%
2004 -4.7%
2006 -2.1%
2007 -0.3%
2008 -3.4%
2009 +2.4%
2010 +10.1% (people were starting to buy up big at this point)
2011 -5.3%

CG-wise this is right BUT the thing that has happened since then is that rents have gone up significantly.

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evand said:

and no cap growth.

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I think you might be being a bit harsh evand. You can't say "no cap growth" when the median price in 1992/3 was $128K and 10-11 years later in 2003/4 it was $381K.

There may have been no cap growth for the last 8 years to now - and this is especially evident if you compare it to some parts of Sydney, however, it is not uncommon to see a long flat period of no/low growth, in any RE cycle, after such a large increase in the preceeding years.

evand said:

.....due to lack of rental demand (very low income area)

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Rental demand is quite strong and vacancy rates presently are hovering around 1.4% (according to SQM)

Anecdotally, I hear of many tenants who cannot move out from properties their LL has sold, because they can't get a new rental to move to.

Not harsh, just realistic. Every property in Australia went through the roof in the run up to the 2003 boom. The biggest I've seen before or since. I think properties tripled in price or close to it. I had ip's in different states that did just that. I had 5 houses in the cabollture/moray field area go from $110k in 2000 to $320 - 330k up to October 2003 when the boom stopped. The central coast properties didn't perform that well but would have at least doubled.

It was madness. And the usually sedate Umina beach was part of it.

Re rent, as you know the Woy Woy peninsula is a low income area with retirees, no shortage of people on benefits etc and therefore rents are seriously constrained by this.

In most areas with no/limited cap growth it's not hard to have decent rent yields as the rent crpsup and property prices stagnate. Do you know want general yields are on that part of the CC now?

Propertunity said:

I think you might be being a bit harsh evand. You can't say "no cap growth" when the median price in 1992/3 was $128K and 10-11 years later in 2003/4 it was $381K.

There may have been no cap growth for the last 8 years to now - and this is especially evident if you compare it to some parts of Sydney, however, it is not uncommon to see a long flat period of no/low growth, in any RE cycle, after such a large increase in the preceeding years.

Rental demand is quite strong and vacancy rates presently are hovering around 1.4% (according to SQM)

Anecdotally, I hear of many tenants who cannot move out from properties their LL has sold, because they can't get a new rental to move to.

Click to expand...

evand said:

How is 3.4% measured exactly? That's is negative growth, taking into account 3-4 % inflation per year for 8years.

I see places selling there now that are less than comparable prices in the 2003 boom. Nothing has happened since then.

I read this post after I posted in another Umina thread. There is little to no growth in the area. I've been waiting 20 years for the area to be 'discovered', be gentrified and take off. It's a beautiful area but there are so many social problems, it just aint going to happen.

By the way, Lomas lives at least half an hour away from Umina in a higher socio economic area. Umina is a very low socio area with many people on benefits, un married mums, housing commission and retirees. It also has a pretty bad drug and alcohol problem. Not to mention bunches of drunk teenagers roaming the streets every weekend as there is nothing for them to do.

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I agree. 3.4% was taken taken from RP data stats and was the total growth since '03. Which in real terms is most definitely negative growth. Judging from the figures prop' has posted (which I assume are residex) even 3.4% could be considered optimistic.

evand said:

How is 3.4% measured exactly? That's is negative growth, taking into account 3-4 % inflation per year for 8years.

I see places selling there now that are less than comparable prices in the 2003 boom. Nothing has happened since then.

I read this post after I posted in another Umina thread. There is little to no growth in the area. I've been waiting 20 years for the area to be 'discovered', be gentrified and take off. It's a beautiful area but there are so many social problems, it just aint going to happen.

By the way, Lomas lives at least half an hour away from Umina in a higher socio economic area. Umina is a very low socio area with many people on benefits, un married mums, housing commission and retirees. It also has a pretty bad drug and alcohol problem. Not to mention bunches of drunk teenagers roaming the streets every weekend as there is nothing for them to do.

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I am a long time reader and first time poster of these forums. I am really appalled at this particular poster recurrent bitterness towards this area. It's like an all consuming obsession he has to denigrate it as much as possible. This self hating diatribe is getting tiresome. Perhaps you don't like the area evand, fair enough, but when you start attacking the occupants of a particular suburb as being undesirable because they are "unmarried mums", "dole bludgers", and reciepients of social welfare you border on slander and predjudice.

What is so undesirable about being a single parent or living near one? How on earth do you justify that the whole value of a suburb is lowered from what you percieve as an over abundance of women who are raising children on their own?

I read somewhere way back evand that a spouse or some relation of yours worked at St Johns Woy woy. I hope they did not display the blatent cashed up bogan mentality you display here. You constantly berate with little regard for the groups you are targeting. I am a single parent with my children at this school and I am so relieved you have decided to take your elitist attitude out of this area. It is no better than going to the western suburbs and saying that the area is full of migrants and housos and ferals.



See I don't fear my children becoming a single parent, drug addict or on the dole by living here. Quite the opposite. I and many others love it here and enjoy the variety of people, increasing multi cultural element and natural beauty. Coming from Avalon myself I know what it's like to live in Sydney and I and many others prefer it here.


If anything I fear my children hating themselves and their roots so much they spend countless hours for years on end berating their home. On days like boxing day when they should be relaxing with family, they hopefully wont be sitting on internet forums spewing hate and predjudice.

Its a fact that the area has a lot of people on benefits (single mothers, dole recipients, sickness benefits, pensioners) , a lot of retirees, social problems, and alcohol and drug problems.

These are facts, i didnt make them up and im relating them for a purely investment situation. ie: Whether or not to invest in an area.

Now, what i'm saying is these facts don't make for a good area to invest in. I explain these things for the benefit of forum members. That there are concrete reasons for lack of long term cap growth and poor yields. FACT!

A lot of people are in denial up about the problems in their own area and sounds like you're one of them. Its called cognitive dissonance if you care to look it up.

And, beside all that, im entitled to my opinion. Just like you and everyone else is.