Residex Sydney Top 100 Houses Report

First-timer but keen to participate in the discussions on this forum.

Keep to hear what people's thoughts are of Residex Predictions Top 100 reports.

I just bought the above report for quarter ending October 2013. It gives me what the top 100 growing suburbs are predicted to be in Sydney using Residex's statistical methods.

Some of the suburbs make sense but others baffle me. In the top 20, I find some suburbs worth looking into e.g. #1 Rouse Hill, #2 Bligh Park, #15 West Hoxton, etc.

But in that top 20 list are also Bronte, Clovelly, Rose Bay, Belllevue Hill, Mosman - all predicted to achieve 10+% p.a. capital growth over the next 8 years. That just beggars belief!

Comments? Thoughts?
 
On what basis do you agree/disagree with any of them?
If you filtered the top 100 by suburbs you can afford to actually buy in, would there be enough left to get some investing done?
 
So you think that it ok for suburbs that have no distinguishing features to perform well , but suburbs that are in highly desired positions , centrally located with limited land supply , close to nice restaurants , good schools etc won't :confused::confused:

Just because they seem expensive doesn't mean there aren't a lot of people out there who can. Generally they're not buying their first property so they've built up equity over a period of years .

Cliff
 
Btw

I don't buy those type of reports . I read this forum . My gut feeling is the people here know as much if not more than the so called experts

Cliff
 
I used to buy those reports and then buy houses within them

Looking back I think I would/know that I would be more successful in achieving growth quicker by buying in suburbs starting to tighten/rise (obviously) now or at the time I was purchasing

Knowing how to filter through and find those areas is something for you to learn

You don't need those reports to achieve that
 
Thanks everyone for their thoughts.

I guess it's a bit hard to believe that very established areas will double again in 7 years! These areas have achieved mediocre CG rates over the last ten years. I think everyone would agree 10+ p.a. growth over 8 years is a bold prediction.

But there must be some method to the madness so I'll call Residex today to get more insights into some of the suburbs.

Will post again if I have something more insightful to share.
 
Useful, but don't rely just on these

Whilst you don't necessarily achieve the fantastic growth rates they might predict (Bligh Park for instance was said to be 14% pa over 8 years in the `07 report if I recall), I've found the reports very useful as a starting base to identify areas you might not have considered.

For instance, if you'd lived in Cronulla all your life, you'd know of Blacktown...but would probably not have heard of Oakhurst or Hassall Grove.

In addition, if you can see 5 neighbouring suburbs are all listed in the top 30, it is a reasonable indicator that something is going on there, and the region warrants further study.

Finally, it also helps short circuit some wasteful effort e.g. median prices and rental for suburbs allow you to quickly de-scope some areas from your 'candidate' list.

They cost a couple of hundred dollars but that's nothing compared to purchasing the property itself.

I'd recommend them to help jump start your search, but follow this up with a dose of common sense (e.g. just because it is on the list, it might be skewed by stats from acreages), and the usual research (somersoft, council sites, examine the fundamentals of the area, etc) to help you pin down an area.

I'm not so sure of their new star system though.
 
I've lived in Bronte for the last 15 years. I would not be surprised to see substantial growth for next 8 years..but possibly not 10% p.a.. Median price is now $1.7m so 10% p.a. suggests median price of $3.6m in 8 years time. That's a large figure. It used to be a working class suburb.

The amount of renovation and construction happening here is amazing. I didn't know Sydney had so many builders/carpenters etc. There seems to be someone renovating every 25 houses or so near me. That includes a few knockdowns and large rebuilds.

Sydney is one of the world's major cities and many people in Sydney want to live close to the city and eastern suburb beaches. That puts a lot of price pressure on Bondi, Bronte, Tamarama, Clovelly, Coogee and Maroubra.
 
I was fullish enough to buy Residex report for Brisbane and Sydney in 2009. About a month ago I decided to look at whether their predictions have stood the test of times. In Brisbane most of the suburbs where they predicted 10-12% growth p/a for the next 5 years have managed on average 2% p/a. I have not done the full blown suburb by suburb analysis of their predictions, but the quick assessment based on looking at their top suburbs showed less than 50% accuracy. In other words you are better off throwing darts at the map of your favourite city of getting a monkey to draw up card with random numbers.
In 2009 they also were quite negative on Blacktown in Sydney which turned out to be quite a performer.
If there is a sufficient demand I can do a full suburb by suburb analysis of their predictions, not sure though if I am allowed to post their 2009 data.
 
I'd love to see this type of analyses. These reports should back up what they say. May be just the top 20 suburbs?

These residex reports reminds me of hedge funds. No one knows what logic is used. But at least with hedge funds, you can measure their performance even when you had no idea what investing model they used to achieve it.
 
I've had success with Residex. It's a bit like painting by numbers for me. I've spent over $3000 on their reports over the last 10 years.

Their best rent report mid 2005 had houses in Gunn (NT) with rental yield of 6.4% and predicted growth 5 years 16% p.a. Median price $239,000

I bought for 250k and its on the market at the moment for 495k. Figures for first 5 years were very close to what happened.

Their September 2006 Best Rent report had Lamb and Russell island (Brisbane mud islands)
with 13% and 11% p.a capital growth respectively for next 5 years and rental yields of 5.75% and 5.85% respectively. Median prices were $184,500 for Lamb Island and $173,000 for Russell Island. I understand property prices there almost doubled in the following year-2007.

If you use Residex best rent report pick their best yielding prediction (rent + capital growth). If they are half correct you will still do ok.

I think their methodology picks up on local government planning and proposed infrastructure spending. I attended a seminar once where John Edwards discussed methodology.
 
I've had success with Residex. It's a bit like painting by numbers for me. I've spent over $3000 on their reports over the last 10 years.

Their best rent report mid 2005 had houses in Gunn (NT) with rental yield of 6.4% and predicted growth 5 years 16% p.a. Median price $239,000

I bought for 250k and its on the market at the moment for 495k. Figures for first 5 years were very close to what happened.

Their September 2006 Best Rent report had Lamb and Russell island (Brisbane mud islands)
with 13% and 11% p.a capital growth respectively for next 5 years and rental yields of 5.75% and 5.85% respectively. Median prices were $184,500 for Lamb Island and $173,000 for Russell Island. I understand property prices there almost doubled in the following year-2007.

If you use Residex best rent report pick their best yielding prediction (rent + capital growth). If they are half correct you will still do ok.

I think their methodology picks up on local government planning and proposed infrastructure spending. I attended a seminar once where John Edwards discussed methodology.

I bought a property in the 8th highest suburb w a growth rate of predicted 15%

6 months later I bought a second residex report and the same suburb i had bought in had been downgraded to 5 % go figure

Even then it hasn't even gone up 5% prob gone down if anything

I'm not slating residex by any means, but I think a healthy amount of investment knowledge to back it all up certainly would help
 
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