Look at the Predictions - Australian Housing Outlook 2010-2013

MTR

MTR

Just thought I would post this for those who may be interested to see whether they got it right, this document was prepared by BIS Shrapel in October 2010.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/icm-new/QBEBISPropertyOutlook20112013.pdf

This is what they documented as expected median price for these States as of June 2013, listed below is also actual median June 2013:

June 2013 - Predictions
Sydney $750,000
actual $690,000

Melbourne $610,000
actual $562,000

Brisbane $530,000
actual $440,000

Perth $590,000
actual $520,000

Adelaide $490,000
actual $385,000

Canberra $580,000
actual $576,000

They also predicted that by June 2013 interest rates would peak at 9%, who would have thought IR would go as low as 5%

MTR
 
scha9799 said:
Sometimes I wonder what "prediction" means:confused:
Click to expand...

Predictions are ‘predictions’. Otherwise it would be ‘actual’. You will never get them to match. It is simply the best guess based on the information available at that point in time.
It gives some sort of number so that ‘plans’ can be made. Sometimes these predictions can influence the ‘actuals’ towards predictions. Well that is a different research topic :)
On average they have over predicted by about 11% over 3 year period.

Code: 
           Predicted	Actual	Error
Sydney  	 750	 690	8%
Melbourne	610	 562	8%
Brisbane	530	 440	17%
Perth	        590	 520	 12%
Adelaide	490	 385	21%
Canberra	580	 576	1%
Rough Aveg	592	 529	11%

Average error would be actually less than 11% if you normalise it by the number of properties in each city since Syd & Mel has smaller error.
 
Great work MTR! It's great to do this type of analysis.

Hmmm.... so what does this mean, we need to play catch up??
 
devank said:
Predictions are ‘predictions’. Otherwise it would be ‘actual’. You will never get them to match. It is simply the best guess based on the information available at that point in time.
It gives some sort of number so that ‘plans’ can be made. Sometimes these predictions can influence the ‘actuals’ towards predictions. Well that is a different research topic :)
On average they have over predicted by about 11% over 3 year period.

Code: 
           Predicted	Actual	Error
Sydney  	 750	 690	8%
Melbourne	610	 562	8%
Brisbane	530	 440	17%
Perth	        590	 520	 12%
Adelaide	490	 385	21%
Canberra	580	 576	1%
Rough Aveg	592	 529	11%

Average error would be actually less than 11% if you normalise it by the number of properties in each city since Syd & Mel has smaller error.
Click to expand...


How did you come up with the 'Error' %?
Maybe I'm being pedantic, but I think the error should be calculated using the 'Actual' figure as a reference, not the 'predicted' value (as we're trying to work out how far away the prediction was *from* the actual amount).

eg. Brisbane
difference / Actual = Error
530 - 440 / 440 = 20.4%

Still, good work regardless
 
scha9799 said:
Sometimes I wonder what "prediction" means:confused:
Click to expand...

This...........

blindfolded_man_throwing_darts_bld009417.jpeg
 
Forecasting does not work and never did, like weather forecasts, always hit and miss.

Just like you can not predict a turning point, old issue will this turn into a recession, merely a blip.
 
xanh said:
How did you come up with the 'Error' %?
Maybe I'm being pedantic, but I think the error should be calculated using the 'Actual' figure as a reference, not the 'predicted' value (as we're trying to work out how far away the prediction was *from* the actual amount).
Click to expand...
I think either way is fine as long as they are worded correctly.

Forecast as the base lets you to measure performance against your prediction.
Especially in the finance world it makes more sense to use the forecast as base. Generally the forecast is what communicated to the shareholders and communities.
So any future budget adjustments by a company (due to changing in external factors) = Percentage deviations from the forecasts initially used in the budget. Hence, measuring the error based on the forecast makes more sense here.

However, pure statistically speaking, you are right. Baseline should be actual since the that is the forecast's target. It also eliminates the “denominator management.”

Some people actually use the average of both as base :eek:
 
devank said:
Predictions are ‘predictions’. Otherwise it would be ‘actual’. You will never get them to match. It is simply the best guess based on the information available at that point in time.
It gives some sort of number so that ‘plans’ can be made. Sometimes these predictions can influence the ‘actuals’ towards predictions. Well that is a different research topic :)
On average they have over predicted by about 11% over 3 year period.

Code: 
           Predicted	Actual	Error
Sydney  	 750	 690	8%
Melbourne	610	 562	8%
Brisbane	530	 440	17%
Perth	        590	 520	 12%
Adelaide	490	 385	21%
Canberra	580	 576	1%
Rough Aveg	592	 529	11%

Average error would be actually less than 11% if you normalise it by the number of properties in each city since Syd & Mel has smaller error.
Click to expand...

Sydney currently a hot market, it possibly may not be too far away from hitting $750,000..... just a prediction:p
 
Ausprop said:
Bubble territory, crazy money for a median home
Click to expand...

I think at the peak of the last property boom in Perth around 2006 Perth median was just over $600,000 and for the first time ever was slightly above Sydney's median, did not last long though.... anything can happen when markets go ballistic :eek:
 
true, hysteria can drive markets to lofty heights but I have to wonder how much the average joe can take of that and thus how much upside there can really be. that's a hefty debt for average folk to bear in a city that doesn't pay particularly well
 
Ausprop said:
true, hysteria can drive markets to lofty heights but I have to wonder how much the average joe can take of that and thus how much upside there can really be. that's a hefty debt for average folk to bear in a city that doesn't pay particularly well
Click to expand...

Interest rates at an all time low, and we will most likely see another drop when RBA meet in August, this is a big one.
 
Ausprop said:
true, hysteria can drive markets to lofty heights but I have to wonder how much the average joe can take of that and thus how much upside there can really be. that's a hefty debt for average folk to bear in a city that doesn't pay particularly well
Click to expand...

Lots of average joes in Syd getting paid plenty, not to mention the better than average joes.

Obviously, otherwise the median wouldn't be what it is.

Makes me wonder, does everyone in Perth get paid like a miner...?

Cause when I was there in 2012 prices for just about everything was sky high, much higher than Syd. Walked away thinking that this is the thing that cant last.
 
The Fence said:
Lots of average joes in Syd getting paid plenty, not to mention the better than average joes.

Obviously, otherwise the median wouldn't be what it is.

Makes me wonder, does everyone in Perth get paid like a miner...?

Cause when I was there in 2012 prices for just about everything was sky high, much higher than Syd. Walked away thinking that this is the thing that cant last.
Click to expand...
I noticed moving back here from over east every thing in the supermarket was priced 20c to $1.00 more. My husband typically gets paid more here though. (Construction) I notice Office workers typical of the type of work I do is advertised about $5/hour more here.
 
yes professional salaries are not enough to entice you to Sydney - pre GFC it was the case that if you were to move a long way away you may as well go to london etc and get the real money - a plane flight is a plane flight eod. but of course post gfc all those economies have been terrible for white collar employment
 
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