Somersoft's Official Start of the New Property Cycle Indicator

Rixter

Rixter

I've been a member of this forum basically from its inception. Over the years you get to notice a lot of things that keep re-occurring.

Like at the start of a new property cycle where you see rental yields rising and investors being lured back into the market.

With this, begins all the usual positive/negative headlines to be read, watched and heard in the media. ie Classic example as posted in some SS threads - RBA, Banking CEO's etc. Remember tho, the media is used by certain groups to control the masses and if you follow what they do you will get what they have.

Another phenomenon, is most the associated forums start to bubble with the influx of new members joining asking all the same types of re-cycled questions as the previous newbie wave that joined the property cycle before it.

Well, that time has come around again. Just look around SS at all the new members recently joined & posting. This leading indicator of mine officially declares the upswing in the market and heralds the start of the latest new property cycle.

Let the wealth building games begin :)
 
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Hi Rixter,

Huge call .... the credibility of which is enhanced by your wealth of experience. It will be fascinating in retrospect to see if you nailed it.

Cheers,
Greg
 
That's actually interesting, I have been thinking lately that I have been seeing a lot of questions similar to ones asked over and over.....checked my join date of the forum....October 2004....I was a newbie back then asking the same questions....

7.5 years ago I joined the forum......how long is a property cycle supposed to be

:)

Wow....its amazing how those 7 years have passed so quickly!
 
It's a pretty broad post Rixter, mind narrowing it down a little? :)

All states are close to turning or are there some in mind which you think will lead the market out of the trough?
 
Mmmm..not sure.

I've just started coming back here to see how the diehard property bulls are handling the fact that prices can go down.

Let's hope all the newbies aren't here for the same twisted reason!

RC
 
I can just imagine Rixter now...

tumblr_lox02eaI2C1r0wgiuo1_400.gif
 
devo76 said:
Who said prices can't go down. Name them. Shame them.
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I'm not having a go at anyone.

It's just been interesting to watch the tide turn and people's reaction to it.

Changes of strategy, effects of tighter lending, a bit of fear, even a bit of gold discussion.

Then there are others who carry on as normal.

Not saying anyone is right or wrong, it's just interesting.

RC
 
hobo-jo said:
All states are close to turning or are there some in mind which you think will lead the market out of the trough?
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Areas where the population is moving in and wanting to live. Where the major population masses lay in WA, Qld & NSW are my top picks.
 
Rixter said:
Another phenomenon, is most the associated forums start to bubble with the influx of new members joining asking all the same types of re-cycled questions as the previous newbie wave that joined the property cycle before it.
Click to expand...

Maybe it's due to the sharemarket's terrible recent record rather than anything attractive about property. There's only so many places you could put investment funds. The other is fixed interest, which unlike property or shares doesn't have as strong marketers or spruikers.

One thing I've noticed this time though are more questions from buyers who want to back out of the deal (especially new off the plan properties). Either because they don't come up to valuation, they reckon they could do better elsewhere or their own circumstances have worsened.

So part of the increased interest may be cries for help!
 
Spiderman said:
Maybe it's due to the sharemarket's terrible recent record rather than anything attractive about property. There's only so many places you could put investment funds.
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Thats a underlying fundamental from an investors perspective for sure. Has been since the beginning of time. Investors shift across from the share market into the safety of bricks & mortar, and gold. But as you know investors dont drive the property markets do they. Its the masses that do - being the owner occupiers.

Investors jump in at the beginning of the cycle down in the basement and ride the lift to the top story driven by the fueled on emotion owner occupiers (realising its cheaper to purchase than rent) who jump on as the lift travels up.
 
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It may not be possible to generalize meaningfully about property, or shares for that matter. Some parts will boom, others will be about the same, and some will fall, even to the point of failure. The best strategy – ever elusive – is to buy investments that will go up in value, provide income, or both. Such investments should be bought at less than the market price, or at a price that allows renovations to give more value.

The European problems, US unemployment, lack of market confidence and other factors will impact how shares and property fare. We shall see.
 
I thought we were going to be hitting GFC part 2. I thought that there is a chance that Australia would head into a mild recession once China cools off and the mining boom wears thin. There is evidence of that as BHP and RIO prices stagnate. Why then would be be expecting generalised property price increases?
 
china said:
I thought we were going to be hitting GFC part 2. I thought that there is a chance that Australia would head into a mild recession once China cools off and the mining boom wears thin. There is evidence of that as BHP and RIO prices stagnate. Why then would be be expecting generalised property price increases?
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Because Rixter has been on this forum since inception and noticed a general upswing in property prices whenever new members are posting.

Rixter said:
Just look around SS at all the new members recently joined & posting. This leading indicator of mine officially declares the upswing in the market and heralds the start of the latest new property cycle.
Click to expand...
 
I tend to agree with you Rixter. Confidence these days is very low, particular down here in Victoria. Just bought another site for under $1,000 a sqm - only 1-2 years ago they would have sold this property for $1,500-2,000 per sqm. Hopefully things pick up from here to vindicate the purchase.
 
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