Is this the slowest it's been ? The somersoft leading indicator

Ignoring the obvious slow down over Christmas New year , I'm wondering if the forum is the slowest it's been for a long time.

There are still new members joining, but as far as " significant " posts / discussions , there hasn't been much going on , on the forum for a while.

Is this an indication of a lower interest in property in the hard core property nuts , thus indicating the approaching of the time to start buying for those who believe in timing in the market ?

The somersoft leading indicator is currently at the lowest level I've seen it.

See Change

Slowest it's been?

I don't know, I just don't know.

If your mean am I learning, researching and educating myself and altering/improving (ha ha) my mindset...I am on the greatest, most powerful learning curve of my life..

Some of the smaller, maybe? perceived more insignificant threads I learn an awful lot from...I can take away a powerful message from a few lines, or a few posts....maybe "quiet" doesn't necessarily equate to inactivity, what if it means some are just out there going like the clappers or taking a physical and mental time out phase.??

Wouldn't your definition of "significant" be different to mine, and others? Is it not subjective? relative?

The Somersoft forum to me is such a changeable and fluid information/discussion resource...huge and diverse, topical and notso The thing is quiet times might be "quiet" for some, and "opportunity" for another.... you never know who might be lurking around and with a little lull in the traffic might jump in and decide to contribute...

We are in between purchases/building, so technically the portfolio hasn't been added to, but two minor renovations are completed and the research and learning I have been up to for the last 12 months is invaluable.
This fantastic amazing journey that started out with a "hey, let's build an investment property!"
"Good one dude!"...
For us, time is flying, so fast, just so quickly.

Is the forum slowing? at lowest level you've seen? .....but what if you are moving quicker See_Change?

OO

There are always people who will gain alot from the forum , and there always people who are new to the forum who are going through the phase of picking up the communal knowledge. I've been there myself and can remember what it was like.

I'm not in anyway denigrating people who are going through that phase , and I'm sorrry if my post came across as giving that impression.

I've long subscribed to the idea that Somersoft can give an indication of where the general population is likely to go in terms of their view point to investing in property. I can look back over the last five years and say that there were people talking about investing in pretty well every geographical area in Australia in the months prior to that area taking off.

At the moment , It's my impression that somersoft , in overall terms is quieter than it's been since I've joined and , I think , it's well accepted that the market will go through a really quiet patch before the final investors give up and move else where , and then ( for those who subscribe to timing of the market ) we might be heading towards the light at the end of the tunnel.

Though obviously , if we believe in the somersoft leading indicator , there will be people ( outside those who believe that anytime is the time to buy ... The rixters, M.Y.'s of the forum ) here who will be flagging the time to buy in advance of the market starting to move.

See Change

Posts per month for 2006

Sim

Is it possible to post that for the last several years to get an overall feel ?

Is Dec normally that dead ?

See Change

Unfortuantely, that system that generates those graphs doesn't keep all the data going back historically.

I would have to build some custom reports out of the database to get a more accurate indication of historic post volumes and such. I'll have a look when I get a chance.

Understand what you are saying see-change, and it's one of the 'indicators' I have been made aware of as well (so I'm watching with interest also).

Would like to think I'm one of the hard core property nuts who's here for the long haul.

Would be very interested to see what the activity's been like since 2003 or so.

Cheers!

i must admit that not many threads have piqued my interest recently.

i thought it was just me and where i was in my phase of life - busy packing/cleaning/planning reno's for our new ppor, a couple of ips up for sale (had accepted offer on one yesterday, and another settles end of january - only 2 more to go) ... but not looking at buying anything more until they've all settled and we've taken a good look at the finance structure - probably around end of january.

doesn't help that the architect has closed down for a few weeks - so nothing happening on the rebuild front. nothing happening on the research and buying front (nothing new on the market where i'm looking for around 4-6 weeks). can't do anything more on the ppor front until we get possession on friday - and even then it's just some boring painting in white on white before the furniture moves in. can't do anything more to help the sales for the other 2 ips on the market.

at the moment everything is just a waiting game - waiting for a few sales, waiting for a few settlements, waiting to consolidate the finances before heading off again, waiting for professionals to get back to work ... just waiting.

which all means nothing much is happening - no questions to ask - no dramas - the brain has vaguely switched off so nothing much to contribute.

... just nothing .... time for a nap ...

Sea-change

I had noticed the lack of posts but had assumed more people were away or tied up with renos etc.

Although posts might be down the number of people, particularly new members, coming to our Somersoft meetings in Melbourne appears to be up, which to me indicated a renewed interest in property in Melbourne.

How about the other cities - is the number attending increasing?

Sim's figures for previous years would be interesting reading.

Regards

Chris

I think it is just a busy time for everyone and checking the forum might be lower on the priority list. I usually check the forum daily but with lots of events over Christmas and New Years I haven't had time

Check back in a few weeks

Nothing earthshattering here

Since I am not actually buying realestate at present, I haven't a lot to contribute. Mind you, I am still watching the market intently.

I am really having a terrible time just doing nothing, in terms of buying. It is so easy to buy and quick when it happens, that next time I will have to savour every moment.

I get my kicks now from reading about what others have bought and how they are doing, so please keep posting everyone.

I'm using it as a time to catch up on other interests.

Just been updating music things with my Mac / bought some songwriting books and enrolled to do an online songwriting course with the Berklee College in the US. Will be interesting to see how that works out

See Change

is it possible that most of those significant threads are started by questions raised by new investors? and that the quiet time now is because most of the old-hands still frequenting the forum don't need to ask those questions, and know their investing strategies/plans? and maybe that during the boom times when frenzy/desperation to get into the market sets in, that's when people start looking for the most creative ways to finance/add value/reduce tax/etc? or that in the last 5 years there has been such a wealth of published info/theories/strategies (wraps, buy and hold, +/- CF, flips, etc, etc.) that there's not so much left to uncover and discuss? i don't know. i haven't been here long enough to know if this is a usual xmas slump or a more significant marker...

following on from the theory that somersoft is a good indicator of where the market is headed, i was lurking long enough ago to witness discussion of the perth boom, whether it still had legs, 2 years ago, and it sure seems that somersofters (largely) picked that one. it seems there have been a bunch of threads on 'where you're buying next' lately - so maybe that's an indication that we're collectively thinking along the 'buy up now' line. i certainly think that it's a good time to buy and will try to get as much as i can this year. which will probably only amount to the grand total of one or two, but still, that's better than a kick in the b*m, innit?

i'm only a novice psychic, but fwiw i don't see any big booms in my crystal ball, tho i do see strong gains in the distant future for brisbane... or maybe that's just because i want to see good long term gains in bris cos it's the only capital city i can afford a house in at the mo!



p.s this is totally off topic, but i went and visited some of those shares forums for fun in the last few days - learnt a lot, not the least of which is that i like property a lot more, and i like the type of people on this forum a lot more too!

see_change said:

I'm using it as a time to catch up on other interests.

Just been updating music things with my Mac / bought some songwriting books and enrolled to do an online songwriting course with the Berklee College in the US. Will be interesting to see how that works out

See Change

Click to expand...

Hey Seech, aiming for the next "Australian Idol" title huh???

I will soon be heading down the Tassie to combine a holiday with overseeing the final details and rental of my townhouses. So there will be no posts from me during this time. When I come back I am unsure what my plans will be as I have no definite property plans in place. I think I will be looking for soemthing new.....

Monopoly said:

Hey Seech, aiming for the next "Australian Idol" title huh???

Click to expand...

Could be just aiming to pick up a property for a song....

Cheers,

The Y-man

i couldnt imagine doing any reno / haggling work during christmas or new years...! property while interesting / fun, is sometimes stressful.

things will pick up in january i suspect!

I have been looking for a new PPOR and been more active in shares. I think I will have some out of comfort zone questions soon.

Posts per year, 2001 - 2006:




Posts per month, Jan 2004 - Dec 2006 (Month of december highlighted for each year):




Posts per week Jan 2004 - Dec 2006 (note the sharp dips - they correspond to the Christmas week each year). Black line is 20 week moving average:



... so this quiet period is normal. December is usually pretty quiet, with a sharp drop off in post volume over the Christmas period.

Monopoly said:

Hey Seech, aiming for the next "Australian Idol" title huh???

Click to expand...

No ... Alas I can't sing ,

but I wouldn't mind saying I wrote the winners single


See Change