Ebola threat

Aaron Sice said:

Hype and panic.

Legionairres was going to kill us all in the late 70s.
AIDS was going to touch everyone in the 80s.
H1N1? Swine Flu?

4mil a year die from pnuemonia. 4k from Ebola.

Move along.

Click to expand...

On PBS (American News) the guest said the Ebola numbers are a lot higher.
they are having trouble keeping up with the statistics, but the real numbers are closer to 22K infected, and 15k dead.
Closer to 70% fatality now, instead of 50%.

They are saying we have less than 60 days to get this under control.

Aaron Sice said:

Hype and panic.

Legionairres was going to kill us all in the late 70s.
AIDS was going to touch everyone in the 80s.
H1N1? Swine Flu?

4mil a year die from pnuemonia. 4k from Ebola.

Move along.

Click to expand...

I'm inclined to agree.

This is an infection that reaches pandemic proportions in overpopulated, under educated third world countries.

In the 24 hour news cycle of a first world country, people are going to get very paranoid, very quickly (as evidenced by this thread) and quarantine themselves. This alone will reduce the threat as the disease burns itself out with nobody to spread too.

The second factor is Ebola is known to mutate slightly with each generation. The first generation of patients have very high mortality rates, well over the quoted 70%. By the fifth generation it becomes easily survivable.

It also only becomes infectious when it becomes symptomatic. As a result, media and education become very effective in limiting its spread.

datto said:

Quarantine in Oz for 3 months (at their expense) if they want to come here.

Click to expand...

I've put your name forward as a nurse aid... handy with bum wipes and a puke bucket?

Peter_Tersteeg said:

In the 24 hour news cycle of a first world country, people are going to get very paranoid, very quickly (as evidenced by this thread) and quarantine themselves. This alone will reduce the threat as the disease burns itself out with nobody to spread too.

Click to expand...

Going do some real research Peter instead of waffling rubbish. Several species of fruit bat are reservoir hosts for the virus making it virtually impossible to eradicate. Since the late 70's Ebola has progressively increase its foothold in Sub Saharan Africa. As the west scrambles for a stake in Africa over the last decade significant sized foreign worker groups have established themselves in all the exposed Ebola regions. It's a virtual certainty that returning workers will bring the disease back to even more populous regions such as India and SE Asia.

The second factor is Ebola is known to mutate slightly with each generation. The first generation of patients have very high mortality rates, well over the quoted 70%. By the fifth generation it becomes easily survivable.

Click to expand...

Staggering how you come up with this nonsense. The experts can't even agree on exactly how it transmits and you're waffling on about mutations decreasing potency.

The flu virus has never decreased in potency over centuries and will still kill indigenous peoples who've never been exposed to it. Lethality was only mitigated by human immune system adaptation.

The only saving grace I see at the moment is that Ebola cannot be spread by mosquitoes or ticks.

When the authorities prescribe Level A hazmat suits for personnel handling Ebola patients and then say don't worry we have it under control I say BS.

PS: survival rates are function of early intervention and quality of care not mutation. Death rates vary from 25% to 90% with an 'average' of 50%. That average is likely to be improved upon in 1st world hospitals provided they are not overwhelmed which is possible.

You're suggesting that Ebola is so highly contagious that an outbreak in a first world country would be a pandemic? That is rubbish. It spreads via surface transfer and bodily fluids. It's not airborne, waterborne and as you've noted doesn't spread by insects.

In certain circumstances it spreads easily, but it stops spreading when people start to isolate themselves.

In Africa it's dangerous because people are touching the bodies and trying to assist the sick without appropriate training and precautions. Whist some medial staff have contracted it, most are civilians who are not educated in the disease.

An outbreak here would start fairly badly when people didn't know what was happening. After initial outbreak and diagnosis, health services would move very quickly to quarantine victims. Media and education programs would make people take precautions. No doubt there would be economic and social impacts, but to suggest it would kill off the population the way the Spanish flu or bubonic plague did is utterly ridiculous.

In the 1980s people were terrified of AIDS, remember the grim reaper commercials? Today due to education and social awareness it's reasonably well under control but obviously not irradiated. In some parts of Africa it's still in pandemic levels because of a lack of education and a lack appropriate health services. Ebola is certainly nasty and difficult to eradicate, but it isn't about to wipe out the international population.

Ebola was diagnosed in the 70s. In all that time it hasn't wiped out the human population. I bet this illness has "escaped" to 1st world countries before but has been shrugged off as something else.

This current "problem" is only hysteria to sell a story or devalue assets so some people can make money.

Ooh..its lunch time ...time to bbq some bats lol.

You should know better than that Datto, bats need to be marinated then slow cooked none of these new fandangled bbq gizmos.

Talk about panic...


Ebola is actually very difficult to catch. You would only be at risk if you came into very close contact with the blood, saliva, sweat, faeces, semen, vomit or soiled clothing of an Ebola patient, or if you had travelled to the impacted areas in West Africa and came into contact with someone who had Ebola.

Not planning to mingle at this point in time.

Looks like Australia has committed $8M in aid, Government will not be sending any Australian health workers to West Africa.

Was listening to the ABC regarding this, the reason we are not sending any health workers is because it is estimated it could take 30 hours to get a patient from west Africa to Australia, during which the person could go from showing symptoms to dying.

Australia has failed to find a country prepared to make a suitable agreement to care for a sick Australian. There have also been other countries similar scenario.

I can understand this, what country would be prepared to take on an Australian citizen who may have the Ebola virus.





MTR

We can go to the middle east & drop ordinance at a significant cost but cant evacuate volunteer medical services?

With the exception of the Reston strain, Ebola virus is associated with very high morbidity and mortality among patients who present with clinical illness, though these vary according to the causative species. The most highly lethal Ebolavirus species is Zaire ebolavirus, which has been reported to have a mortality rate as high as 89%. Sudan ebolavirus also has high reported mortality, ranging from 41% to 65%.

African-derived filovirus infections are characterized by transmission from an unknown host (possibly bats) to humans or nonhuman primates, presumably via direct contact with body fluids such as saliva or blood or other infected tissues. Evidence in nonhuman primates indicates that Sudan ebolavirus and Zaire ebolavirus may be transmitted by contact with mucous membranes, conjunctiva, pharyngeal and gastrointestinal (GI) surfaces; through small breaks in the skin; and, at least experimentally, by aerosol.[10]

This is not bird flu, its more serious than that. Malaria & TB are the highest cause of mortality on the planet, ie infections. But there is treatment for these, and not ebola. To bring some semblance of control to HIV needed a massive government education and health programme.

And if Africa as a continent spirals into economic downturn, is the rest of the world financially able to cope?

Im not trying to be a dooms sayer, just a little perspective as we cannot afford to be complacent on humanitarian or financial grounds.

Of course its not the bird flu, we know this is far more serious.

We only have to watch/listen to media reports to understand that Governments around the world are concerned and that is why action/strategies are being implemented, with many countries providing resources/funds to assist with this. However, I don't see how hysteria helps the situation.

When Ebola was first identified, in 1976, every outbreak has been contained with strict hygiene - isolation of patients and suspected patients. Staff wore suitable protective clothing and carried out proper cleaning and disposal of clinical waste.

Unfortunately with the recent death in US, Texas Hospital? these protocols were not followed, this seems to be similar scenario for other cases identified recently.

MTR said:

Talk about panic...


Ebola is actually very difficult to catch.

Click to expand...

It's so difficult to catch 50% of health workers are now dead. One has to ask if it's so difficult to catch what the hell does one need a level A hazmat suit for... fancy dress! Jeez..

You and Pete would go well together with Datto doing comedy on the side. You guys would be a shoe-in to supervise the containment if the current official response is anything to go by.

MTR said:

However, I don't see how hysteria helps the situation.

Click to expand...

There's no hysteria. What there is a serious amount of concern by the public that officials are being too blasai and off-hand about the potential for serious damage in many forms.

The senior doctors and international organisations along with the UN have been ringing the warning bells for months. It's only now that as Ebola leaks into western countries that govt's are starting to take notice.

So far predictions and models are proving correct. If that holds true then we're in for a rough ride before they get this thing back under control. We may end up living in a world where Ebola is a resident disease that flares up from time to time. The blame for that might be because not enough people got hysterical enough to prompt an adequate and timely response when they had the chance.

Freckle said:

It's so difficult to catch 50% of health workers are now dead. One has to ask if it's so difficult to catch what the hell does one need a level A hazmat suit for... fancy dress! Jeez..

You and Pete would go well together with Datto doing comedy on the side. You guys would be a shoe-in to supervise the containment if the current official response is anything to go by.

Click to expand...

Here are the new suits
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...tection-worn-by-us-hospital-workers.html?_r=0

Apparently prior to this, where the gloves met the sleeves they were somewhat exposed.

Freckle said:

It's only now that as Ebola leaks into western countries that govt's are starting to take notice.

Click to expand...

I would say some truth in this for sure.

However, now is not a great time to create drama, its time to get on with it, which what seems to be happening now.

MTR

The nurse here in Spain just touched her face, so certainly easier to catch than aids for example. If it can happen in one of the best health systems in the world it can happen anywhere if they're not properly trained and vigilant.

They didn't give poor old Excalibur the dog much of a chance, incineration. Street protests over that.

From Prof Peter Piot

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/04/ebola-zaire-peter-piot-outbreak

The Y-man

Fun fact: More Americans have been married to Kim Kardashian than have died from the virus!

Top Scientist Warns This Version Of Ebola Looks Like "A Very Different Bug"​

Dr. Osterholm just gave a talk shown on C-Span explaining that a top Ebola virologist ? the Head of Special Pathogens at Canada?s health agency, Gary Kobinger ? has found that the current strain of Ebola appears to be much worse than any strain seen before ? and that the current virus may be more likely to spread through aerosols than strains which scientists have previously encountered.


Dr Jahrling explained that his team, who are working in the epicentre of the crisis in the Liberian capital of Monrovia, are seeing that the viral loads in Ebola patients are much higher than they are used to seeing.



Absolutely nothing to worry about (/sarc)

Another panic-merchant thread.

Ask yourself - can you do anything personally about this issue? If so, then do it ... if not, then why stress?

Nature is always throwing something up to mitigate overpopulation ... and she will again.

Best thing to do is be aware but not alarmed - and let the governments get on with doing their job.

Maybe some people who post on SS cannot talk to their partners or other 'real' people in their life, concerning certain subjects. Having somewhere to be able to discuss certain subjects may be helpful for them?

For the ones who dislike these types of subjects...just don't read them.