Which way is the economy heading?

Is our economy

  • Is about to boom

    Votes: 21 11.9%

  • or completely stuffed and worse to come

    Votes: 39 22.2%

  • Going to be as flat as anything

    Votes: 116 65.9%
  • Total voters
    176
T

TMNT

a few days ago, I turned on Today Tonight (by accident I promise) and it had some report about property prices booming blah blah blah, and how our overall economy is booming


fast fwd a few days and I watched a segment on a more credible ABC report

the crux of the ABC report was, our economy isnt as good as most people think it is and its not going to get better,

mining has slowed down significantly and is not going to improve
unemployment is high at 5.X% with a forecast of 6.X%
retail is still pretty stuffed
deficit has increased and if trends continue (whether this means they are predicting to continue or not I didnt understand), is going to be a some stupidly high figure

as BV stated, his economy seems pretty stuffed too,
Holden, Ford, Toyota all going too

is there a complete denial of reality or is the economy good or bad
what do people think?
 
About Today Tonight - its not a reliable news source, full of sensationalistic hyperbole. The ABC is marginally better, despite being perpetually negative. Have you ever seen a positive story on Four Corners? I have been watching it since the 80s and haven't!

Our last recession happened in 1991/1992 - over two decades ago. Statistically, we are overdue for another one.

The RBA seems to be making the right noises. Interest rates are low and the Governor has been jawboning recently about selling the AUD to make our exports more competitive.

Lets not fret too much: during the last two recessions, property actually rose in price.
 
What the hell is a TV,hadn't used one in donks...

Anyhow i voted flat and imo will remain flat for a while yet.

Cheers Spades.
 
yeah, I give today tonight as much crediblity as a drunk used car salesman ,

however, its interesting to note that are so many followers on two extreme scenarios
 
TMNT said:
is there a complete denial of reality or is the economy good or bad
what do people think?
Click to expand...

It all comes back too small businesses if one was to take a drive around most industrial areas in Brisbane and see street by street with 10 plus for lease signs on 25% on six month long vacant properties then that may give you an idea you would have to have severe psychological disorders to listen too anything the RBA tells the Australian investing public..
 
The reality is no one really knows... I read a study a while ago (can't find it now) where it was found that the expert financial forecasters were incorrect more often than simple luck. They are so clever that they manage to be wrong more often than someone who simply guesses the future!

The other problem is most of the experts are full of BS, push the general public in one direction while they do the opposite.

Having said that, I predict a flat market ;)
 
Sometimes I wonder about the theory of economics, but it is just theory.

You talk to 5 economists and you will get 5 different prediction as to where we are going.
 
willair said:
It all comes back too small businesses if one was to take a drive around most industrial areas in Brisbane and see street by street with 10 plus for lease signs on 25% on six month long vacant properties then that may give you an idea you would have to have severe psychological disorders to listen too anything the RBA tells the Australian investing public..
Click to expand...

i see your point but I always thpught that small businesses make up a small and not so signficiant part of the whole picture,
 
I read today that the Aust government has increased the deficit forecast from $30bln to $47bln, and now isnt anticipating a surplus inside of 10years :eek:

Is this just hyperbowl by the Libs to paint a grim picture of how bad a shape the Labor Cronies left the economy in - and they have plans to correct it much sooner - and then will hyperbowl about how good a job they have done?

Where is Dazz when you need him?

I think things will just keep ticking along for the next 12 months. More of the same. I just hope rates stay low, and they bring the AUD value lower still - but thats just me being selfish :D

Blacky
 
One thing that Joe Hockey said on the news this morning is that the Paid Parental Leave Scheme will improve productivity. WTF?

Now; I am wondering how they reckon this, given that if I - as an employer - am paying someone to be off work on paid parental leave; I am down on productivity big time for that employee.

Add to that; I have to fill that employee void with another employee, and it's double costings on staff.

How is that more productive?

My prediction is more folk not getting a job/losing a job as employers struggle to pay and still make profits - you simply cannot pass that cost on to the customers most times.

Maybe he was referring to a more productive welfare climate. :D

It all comes back too small businesses if one was to take a drive around most industrial areas in Brisbane and see street by street with 10 plus for lease signs on 25% on six month long vacant properties then that may give you an idea you would have to have severe psychological disorders to listen too anything the RBA tells the Australian investing public..
Click to expand...
Here in my little swill-hole the population continues to grow, yet we have an unnerving number of vacant shops which are still vacant after several months...small businesses are not falling over themselves to open up the doors....down the road in Rosebud there is a similar look.
 
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BayView said:
One thing that Joe Hockey said on the news this morning is that the Paid Parental Leave Scheme will improve productivity. WTF?

Now; I am wondering how they reckon this, given that if I - as an employer - am paying someone to be off work on paid parental leave; I am down on productivity big time for that employee.

Add to that; I have to fill that employee void with another employee, and it's double costings on staff.

How is that more productive?

My prediction is more folk not getting a job/losing a job as employers struggle to pay and still make profits - you simply cannot pass that cost on to the customers most times.

Maybe he was referring to a more productive welfare climate.
Click to expand...

Doesn't the gov pay parental leave not the employer? Otherwise PPL would send a small business broke. In theory It makes us more productive by encouraging women to stay in the workforce, thus improving participation rates and decreasing people on centrelink payments.
 
BayView said:
Here in my little swill-hole the population continues to grow, yet we have an unnerving number of vacant shops which are still vacant after several months...small businesses are not falling over themselves to open up the doors....down the road in Rosebud there is a similar look.
Click to expand...

Yep with bricks and mortar retail the big are getting bigger and racking up ever increasing profits while the small are shutting down and or going online. Cottage industries starting up all over again.
Although things here could be a lot worse, at least we don't have austerity to deal with.

Here's a story from Turin Italy where currently they are experiencing a social uprising of loosely connected groups under the banner of the Pitchforks movement.


Quote:
Luigi, a mechanic, was among a small group of protesters outside parliament on Wednesday as Enrico Letta, prime minister, appealed inside for support for his coalition government.

I have 20euro in my wallet. I shut down my workshop and I can't pay my taxes even if I wanted to. And them, those politicians, they get thousands at the end of each month, without even showing up, Luigi said. They must all go. They don't represent us. They make promises and don't realise that people like me are dying of hunger.


Italy's president fears violent insurrection in 2014 but offers no remedy.

Events in Italy are turning serious. President Giorgio Napolitano has warned of ?widespread social tension and unrest? in 2014 as the Long Slump drags on.

Those living on the margins are being drawn into ?indiscriminate and violent protest, a sterile lurch towards total opposition?.

His latest speech is a veritable Jeremiad. Thousands of companies are on the brink of collapse. Great masses of the working people are on the dole or at risk of losing their jobs. Very high rates of youth unemployment (41pc) are leading to dangerous alienation.

The recession is still biting hard, and there is a pervasive sense that it will be difficult to escape, to find a way back to full growth, he said.
 
Judging by some of the generous gifts my hubby has been getting lately, some people must be doing Ok! I'm not sure what to vote. I don't think there will be booms or busts, just a slight up or down of economy. Either way, I don't think we'd be greatly affected. If economy was bad some of the loans I fixed 1-2 years ago which expire in 1-2 yrs will create a lot better cash flow. if economy is booming I had planned on selling some when they come off fixed. If my husband stopped working such long hours I would go back to work, just for fun. So either way, no need to panic.
 
underdev said:
Doesn't the gov pay parental leave not the employer? Otherwise PPL would send a small business broke. In theory It makes us more productive by encouraging women to stay in the workforce, thus improving participation rates and decreasing people on centrelink payments.
Click to expand...
I guess that could work if it's done that way.

But, how are they going to fund the PPL?

I guess that it's possible you have a double win - the wife/huband stays at work, the other partner gets paid to stay home, and can then go out and spend the money they get paid for PPL.

The money is redirected back to the Gubb as GST component and possibly more jobs - PAYE, while the workforce loses no workers for maternity leave.

Imagine the explosion of pregnancies then...more population, but will they get jobs down the track?

Could backfire and end up as the biggest Welfare Tsunami of all time.
 
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Blacky said:
Where is Dazz when you need him?
Click to expand...

Maaate, I'm out here in the real world with me clacka hangin' out trying to make ends meet.

Business confidence has had the absolute stuffing knocked out of it over the past 6 years, the general feeling out here in the real world is one of despondency and lack of vim. The decision makers are very reluctant to make decisions.

Everyone seems to want guarantees when none are available, or deemed foolish if given. Everyone demands perfect clarity when most things are a swirling vortex of uncertainty.

Don't expect the Libs within 3 months of attaining office to sort out the monumental mess this economy has been left in. Almost every aspect of Govt has been trashed.

But there is hope. Australia is a big ship to turn around. It doesn't flip around on a dime. The Libs did it way back in 1996, but it took them 10 years to get the country back on track. Back then, Labor's Keating and his mob left the country in the lurch by 96 Billion. Yep, 10 years to get out of that hole.

This Rudd / Gillard / Rudd inherited debacle is more than triple the size. People have absolutely no idea what type of spendathon Labor have been on over the past 6 years.....and yet still they demand more and more and more of their Govt.

There also seems to be this curious "it doesn't affect me, I'm alright Jack" mentality. JFK would be turning in his grave. "Ask not"...and all that.

This thing is going to take decades to repair. Anyone who reckons the Greens inspired Labor party are going to be back in power any time soon are kidding themselves. The Australian population are wiser than that.

As Joe Hockey said yesterday, it has taken them 3 months to sift through the lies and deceit and to find out the true state of the books....and it's ugly....and people would be wise to change the expectations they demand of Govt.
 
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