The Crash

M

miscg

I am thinking about purchasing an additional IP, however for some reason I listened to some of the negative people I know.

This lead me to some simple google searches which all seem to think that the Sydney property market is in for a major crash, possibly 30 to 50%.

I know that no economist has a crystal ball but I was wondering what some of the more advanced investors on this forum think.

Would you continue to buy in the Sydney market, would you wait for this so called crash???

I was looking to spend around 350k on a house in St Marys.

Thanks in advance for your opinions.
 
miscg said:
I am thinking about purchasing an additional IP, however for some reason I listened to some of the negative people I know.

This lead me to some simple google searches which all seem to think that the Sydney property market is in for a major crash, possibly 30 to 50%.

I know that no economist has a crystal ball but I was wondering what some of the more advanced investors on this forum think.

Would you continue to buy in the Sydney market, would you wait for this so called crash???

I was looking to spend around 350k on a house in St Marys.

Thanks in advance for your opinions.
Click to expand...
Hi,
Firstly these negative people you listen too,do they invest properties I bet not and the so called doom and gloom people have been predicting Australia markets crashing for years and since all our fundamentals are good here I will say a big No,make your own choices in life do your due diligence and research then make your decision do not listen to these type of people. Would I buy in Sydney if the figures stacked up.

Macca446
 
I highly doubt any major drops will be happening in the Australian Property market anytime soon. I don't know much about the Sydney market but I'm sure there are plenty of good opportunities out there.

Personally i find that the people giving me negative advice usually have nothing to base there comments on. The people you want to listen to are the ones that have experience and can back up there talk with evidence and facts.

Long term land is always going to go up in value. if you look at other markets (e.g.. USA) that have had these 30-50% drops in property values you will realize that the Australian economy is far from being in the same situation that these other economies where in before house prices drop.

-Supply outstrips demand
-Banks have more cautious lending policies
-Employment is stable
-Good population growth and immigration

Thats some of the main reasons why the housing market here is stable.

Making my first purchase in property i had fears that things could all go wrong but once you push aside all the nonsense and focus on facts you realize you are making the right decision.

cheers
 
a) Chances are, most people who think a crash is around the corner, are terrible at wealth management and creation. So I would hardly listen to them

b) There is no doub Syd is hot and at some point there'll be a downturn. So it is wise to tread carefully
 
Totally agree, haven't yet met one negative wealthy person. They are always finding competitive advantage in something, or somewhere, and they don't allow negative emotions to rule their finance decisions.
 
see_change said:
Self improvement courses and counselling ??

Cliff
Click to expand...

The doomsayers and negative people: Hope for a change of circumstance (i.e. "a crash"). They wish things were easier, rather than make changes and/or improve themselves, or circumstances. Of course they are the first to comment on others. Like Deltaberry also said, why would you listen to doomsayers.
 
miscg said:
I am thinking about purchasing an additional IP, however for some reason I listened to some of the negative people I know.
.
Click to expand...
There is a massive difference between guessing and predicting,just like the interest rates or ASX returns or the social security deficits everything but I would be interested to know what the people "masters of the universe"you know that are negative about property invest in outside their employment paided super and I do agree in some ways when if you have the time to read within this site when the rates were just below *8*% a few years back
there was a mild panic within this site,in some ways we are in line for crash,dot-com bbq,"GFC",maybe 8 years apart 2014 who knows I don't but iv,e been through enough downturns interest rates above 16%ect that no one knows not even the CEO of the large companies that I invest in, you can only stress test so far till the #### hits the high speed fan..
 
dex said:
These negative people.
What are they investing in?
Click to expand...

That's exactly it.

There's nothing wrong with talking negatively about real estate; there are good reasons why one might take that stance.

But you soon find these people don't have a preference for any other investment class; they're simply back-seat commentators with not a single inch of skin in ANY game.
 
I am thinking that a drop of 30% to 50% is wishful thinking.

Buying now on St Mary's is buying pretty close to the top of the market. Personally I would wait....I of the belief that IR rates will head up towrards the end of this year.

For example your house in St Mary's would have sold in 2012 for about $280k..it now sells for $350k. That is is about a 25% increase. When rates go back up it will probably drop down to about 320-330k. That is how the real market works. That means a 6% to 8% drop at mosr.

miscg said:
I am thinking about purchasing an additional IP, however for some reason I listened to some of the negative people I know.

This lead me to some simple google searches which all seem to think that the Sydney property market is in for a major crash, possibly 30 to 50%.

I know that no economist has a crystal ball but I was wondering what some of the more advanced investors on this forum think.

Would you continue to buy in the Sydney market, would you wait for this so called crash???

I was looking to spend around 350k on a house in St Marys.

Thanks in advance for your opinions.
Click to expand...
 
sash said:
I am thinking that a drop of 30% to 50% is wishful thinking.

Buying now on St Mary's is buying pretty close to the top of the market. Personally I would wait....I of the belief that IR rates will head up towrards the end of this year.

For example your house in St Mary's would have sold in 2012 for about $280k..it now sells for $350k. That is is about a 25% increase. When rates go back up it will probably drop down to about 320-330k. That is how the real market works. That means a 6% to 8% drop at mosr.
Click to expand...

I agree broadly.

There more than likely will not be a crash. But there may be slight corrections in areas that are a bit too hot.
 
Ideo said:
I agree broadly.

There more than likely will not be a crash. But there may be slight corrections in areas that are a bit too hot.
Click to expand...

That has already started in my area. I think it happens all the time. If a certain sector of the market overheats, the prices can correct for the sector while the broader market continues to increase. "My area" is development blocks in the city of belmont that rose sharply in price over 12 months to Jan this year. Since then, prices have come off a little.
 
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