Strong Growth in Brisbane

Monthly returns for Brisbane houses

Introducing the Brisbane house scoreboard. The Residex data which I think is excellent extends back to the 70's and I will update then when possible.

The strong growth of the 2000's is striking, to some extent compensation for the 90's and to some extent overshoot which we have been paying for since 2007.

Early indications for 2012 are encouraging based on leading indicators I monitor. A few months of stability or even growth could do wonders for market sentiment. November RP data/Rismark data recorded a growth nationally but Brisbane was still down and I'm waiting for the November data from Residex.


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Andrew, from the above, is it concluded that the median of Brisbane house prices has dropped 5.6% overall for 2011? Sorry if this has been explained previously.
 
Brisbane update - November 2011

Data till end of November 2011.

The end of 2011 and the first few weeks of this year have been strong which is a great contrast to January 2011. Not clear if this will translate into a strong quarter but if it does that will be great as I personally know just how many people are sitting on the fence at the moment and waiting ( a lot). Some of the activity is due to the January 31st cut off date for the 10k boost for new product, though it seems like a large part of the activity can be attributed to the interest rate change of direction. Interesting to see if we can maintain this momentum!

Medians Nov 2011:
Houses: $429,341
Units: $352,961


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Mid January update although not relevant to IPs.

Put an offer in for a PPOR Brisbane inner north. Attached a copy of the valuation from a reputable valuer and offered the amount of the valuation.

Vendor counter offered at a price 40 percent higher than offer.

Looks like we are going to be renters ourselves for awhile. None of the dozen properties we have looked seriously have sold after three months of watching although a few have been withdrawn from sale. But I suspect one of them will be sold by the bank sooner or later.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey.
 
Mid January update although not relevant to IPs.

Put an offer in for a PPOR Brisbane inner north. Attached a copy of the valuation from a reputable valuer and offered the amount of the valuation.

Vendor counter offered at a price 40 percent higher than offer.

Looks like we are going to be renters ourselves for awhile. None of the dozen properties we have looked seriously have sold after three months of watching although a few have been withdrawn from sale. But I suspect one of them will be sold by the bank sooner or later.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey.
That's a significant increase 40% from valuation! Good strategy to show them the valuation and just wait, we have had sellers just agree to the reduction without any argument before, for more difficult deals normally such as development blocks or flood affected.
 
Brisbane update - December 2011

The latest Brisbane property data current till the end of December 2011. Eleven out of twelve months recorded a capital loss in 2011 and only three of the last nineteen months have recorded gains.

2012 has so far shown renewed buyer interest so it will be interesting to see how well this reflects in the January data. Not clear it's anything more than healthy seasonal activity at the moment, still it's a refreshing change from January 2011.

Latest prices:
Houses: $427,253
Units: $352,943

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Brisbane update - January 2012

2012, Looks like being a good year! It might seem strange to get excited about a month that recorded a -0.03% capital loss until you understand what type of year 2011 was. I was predicting a flat January and my prediction has proven to be somewhat accurate.

The increase in buyer activity was first noticed mid December and has continued right through January resulting in more healthy price action for our market.

Houses: $427,134
Units: $348,900

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Thanks for the updates Andrew.

Drilling down into the data, are there certain areas supporting the Brisbane market results more than others?

I suspect I'm not sitting here alone on the sidelines.

Regards,

Kenny
 
Thanks for the updates Andrew.

Drilling down into the data, are there certain areas supporting the Brisbane market results more than others?

I suspect I'm not sitting here alone on the sidelines.

Regards,

Kenny
As this figure includes the whole of Brisbane there will be plenty of variation. Generally close to the CBD has held up much better than mortgage belt areas, price range specific as well. The data from Residex is excellent in my opinion if you keep in mind they are coming up with one figure for a very large area.

It's not just myself and my contacts noting the large number of fence sitters, reflected in data such as mortgage approvals obtained but not acted on as well. I'm sure there will be those who time the market very well and those who don't and plenty buying at the tail end of growth just like there always is :)
 
My daughter worksin a company selling bathroom and kitchen hardware and she is noticing a big increase in fittings being sold to Brisbane. So the reno and new market is on the increase too. I have asked her to try and look out for Gold coast suburbs to see if this is starting to be reflected down there
 
A bit of anecdotal evidence. We've just sold our PPOR in an inner northern suburb - its a 2-3 bedroom Queenslander in the 5-600K range. Within 4 days of being on the market we'd had around 30 groups of people inspect it, 2 written offers and we negotiated with one of them and got it under contract for a price we were happy with. Since then we've spoken to someone else a few houses down the street who put their house which is similar to our on the market and it sold before the first open home. I think if the price is realistic things are starting to sell quite quickly.
 
Would anyone, based on their own previous experience, hazard a guess about how long it would take for brisbane increases to work their way down to the gold coast
 
Would anyone, based on their own previous experience, hazard a guess about how long it would take for brisbane increases to work their way down to the gold coast

I guess you are questioning whats known as the ripple effect.

Brisbane & CG are two totally different markets and the ripple effect wouldnt really come into play. They all run independent to each other but are both still governed my the supply & demand factors locally within.
 
Would anyone, based on their own previous experience, hazard a guess about how long it would take for brisbane increases to work their way down to the gold coast

It has been well established that real estate prices travel at between .10 to .25 km/hr.

This is of course assuming relatively level ground and no head wind.

With respect to the QLD market, the rate of travel has also been known to be impacted by humidity levels and average speeds should be adjusted down by 10% for every percentage point humidity exceeds 75%.

Obviously, the reverse would apply in the event daylight savings were to be introduced (which is in large part the reason it is yet to be embraced in that jurisidiction).
 
February 2012 data

Latest data from Residex for Brisbane. The grind lower continues but I think what we are seeing is different to 2011 at the moment, Louis Christopher from SQM has explained why this might be so, increased activity taking property out at lower levels rather than sellers withdrawing listings being the gist.. Anyway time till tell, looks like a good 2012 so far, investors are back in more healthy numbers.

Houses: $427,134
Units: $348,900

brisbane-score-board-feb-122-300x264.jpg

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Interesting figures on the chart!

Does anyone have year on year figures (possibly from residex?) rather than monthly. It would be interested to see if the year on year figures correlate to the totals in the above chart, which are based on monthly figures.

I would thought the monthly figures may based on too few sales?
 
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