Strong Growth in Brisbane

I'm noticing the market has really gained strength over the last 6 months in North Brisbane, especially the lowest price ranges. I started looking seriously late 2006 for a PPOR when the market was relatively flatter, I'm glad I'm not looking now!

I have gathered anecdotal explanations, and price feedback is patchy still, but I'm definitely thinking Brisbane is growing above long term averages.

Also the stock for both sales and rentals is very low, and there are more than a few stories of properties being sold above list price, which is a sign that the strength is catching the agents by surprise as well.

Anybody have some CG figures to prove or deny this view?
 
I live on the Northside of Brisbane, and I've just bought 4 blocks on land which are almost impossible to find under $200k ( and not 400m).

I've notice that there is hadlry anything for sale, R.E.com.au has lot of undercontract properties and rents are going crazy, I'm having a $50 a weekrent rise on a 3 bedroom townhouse in Brendale, from $245 a week to $295. My Mum recently had a bit of a rental biiding war just to get herself a place to stay after the sale of her PPOR.


Its only going to drive the prices up further because there is nothing to buy and rents are just going up making it more attractive for invetors.
 
You are correct - parts of the Brisbane market are booming.

The stats won't reflect it yet - but our Brisbane office has noticed a huge surge in demand for owner occupiers and investors and good properties are selling within days of being put on the market and receiving multiple offer.

Brisbane has definately shown good long term growth -in fact its been the best long-term performer in real estate among Australia’s capital cities.

Since 1970 (when you could buy a median price house for $8,500) it has averaged 11% growth each year.

This means over the past 35 years Brisbane prices have doubled every 6 years or so.

Of course the growth has not been even. There was a long period during the 90's when prices went nowhere despite strong populaltion growth.

But it has huge short term and long term growth potential. It's time to buy - but buy selectively
 
Hi guys,

working the north brisbane market - I can confirm that is going absolutely nuts...in terms on anecdotal evidence i can offer these that we have sold or are selling...

clayfield - 2 bedroom 30yo unit sold november 06 for 235k - rental appraisal indicates 250pw

brand new house and land in Taigum - lowset 4bed aircon - preconstruction prices 366-410k rental around 350-400...

land only in the same estate starts at 180k but backs onto the Gateway Mwy (after a fence, some scrub and a big ditch) - but for rental purposes??!!

pre construction units in McDowall (www.evvien.com.au) selling from 385k - will be finished by june 08 - already around 20 presales - should rent for around the 400 mark without much problem - prices are going up once construction starts and again on completion (about 40-50k in total)

Cashmere - 4 bed three year old home vendors bought oct 06 for 585k its just gone to market at 660k and has offers already

Warner/cashmere/joyner - several new land estates going in lots being sold off the plan and by ballot at an astonishing rate.

Eatons hill - 13month old owner built home - appraised at 650k (and that was a stretch) - sold it for well over 700k

Mcdowall - three bedroom lowset on a main road - sold in two days for 337k, rents for 350k

Everton park - 809m2 dev site just sold mid 500k's - a new high for the area (by 100k) - it will get units on it very soon - developer will sell them for about 380-420each

Bridgeman downs - 10yo two storey, sold 12months ago for 620 - resold few weeks back for 800k

Lutwyche two bed units we manage just went up from 290-320pw in rent - would sell for around 280-300ish - maybe a bit more now i've thought about it with the way things are

there are millons more examples but the point is that good property is hard to find and selling stupidly fast...re returns - 6-7% in raw terms is not hard to hit at all and above 5% is now very common. land prices on average in Nth Bris have gone up about 20k for a 600m2 block in the last few months - good blocks even more.

I have some hectare development sites in Bridgeman Downs priced in the 1-2mill mark - they are not advertised and the developers are still beating down my door...word of mouth is the best advertising - doesn't cost a cent

the numbers we are getting through opens are frightening and we can't keep vacant rentals for more than a few hours before they are snapped up and good rentals and sale homes are often gone within a few phone calls

its a great time to be in the market...for this part of town, i'm not sure even the boom was this good!!

cheers
UC
 
Thanks UC

Now I know where to stay away from.........;)

Hope you don't get stressed out with all that activity up there

ciao

Nor
 
Thanks UC, interesting to read.

I have been stupid lucky with my timing again it appears. I bought my last property on the Gold Coast in 2001, literally weeks before the boom started to rapidly double it's value after the price had not moved much at all for almost a decade.

Hard to see the same % of CG happening this time around for me, but looks like I'm sitting on some very welcome and sudden CG from everything I can work out, will know for sure when I get a reval in a few months. Looking at a 15% increase more or less on purchase price which I expect I will get close to.
 
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Well I'm just sitting back rubbing my hands together over my purchases on the weekend. But these will have to be it for a while..... I've run out of deductions.

Although, Mum is going to get the next 2 in Warner lakes when they are released next month so technically i will own 1/2 of each just not on paper.


The units I'm living in (there are some for sale on realestate.com.au) were selling for between $210k-240k a few weeks ago and rent for $235-255 a week, now the rent has gone up to $295-315, and sales are $245-260k. Still agood buy..not enough for me, I just like renting here.

The Place that I would be looking at right now, is the next outer ring of Brisbane, such as Morayfield and Cabbolture, still affordable, because renters who can't afford Strathpine, Bray Park etc, will have to move further out pushing the rents up out there.
 
Hope you don't get stressed out with all that activity up there

hahahaha...oddly enough it is quite stressful trying to keep up - but its worth it!! ;-) Nor mate, it's all good if you get into the right spot at the right time - just depends on what you are trying to achieve as an investor

Andrew, the longer i play this game the more i realise that we reckon is sheer dumb luck is actually the skill set so often sought after - its the ability to in the right spot at the right time and knowing which deal is worth pursuing. From your post i submit that you're doing very well - don't sell yourself short mate!!

i'm sure that there are a lot of people reading these forums who would love to know how you're doing it!!!

In terms of the capital gain - i don't think it will be as widespread as last time and perhaps not across all sectors of the market - I think it will all go up a bit, but in select areas there is some real money to be made!!! Letiha who posted earlier has done really well for herself with house and land in Warner et al and there are a couple of other posts i answered a week or so ago about Everton park and dev sites...be in the right spot and you'll do really well - just wish I had more equity/cash flow myself at the moment!!!!

If you like email/PM me sometime and I'll arrange a rental & sale appraisal on your properties (no cost of course) to give you an idea of where you sit both in terms of return and expected growth...won't hold any weight with your bank etc., but it'll give you a good idea of things without the cost of a valuer...

The best comment really has to go to Michael Yardney's statement above
"It's time to buy - but buy selectively"

cheers
UC:D
 
re the north side of Brissy, I saw it stay flattish between 04 and mid 06. Around June last year would have been the ideal time to buy. Since November 06, buyers are back in in force. OOs and PIs alike.

When the outer rings are moving this quick, I think it pays to compare with inner rings. Sometimes value in the outer falls behind the inner, when prices are moving this quick.

letiha, I think you wouldn't go wrong speculating in Caboolture. I looked at its worst part 4 mths ago, housing comm area called Waytown. Houses were selling under $170k. Have heard the area is no where near as bad as 10 years ago.
 
we're about to have a brissie unit revalued. last valued approx 12 months ago for $170K, now should (hopefully) come in somewhere close to $250K, if recent sales figures are anything to go by. 'bout time too. we've been holding that place since 2001 with little to no growth til now...
 
Its not only the northern 'burbs that are going well.

After speaking to local REAs in Indooropilly and Cannon Hill/Murarrie my ips have both grown substantially since I last checked in with the REAs mid last year.

Greg
 
And I'll throw in Taringa as another burb with high demand. I thought I'd get an apartment for 350k 3 months ago. But an inferior 2/1/2 went next door for 389k about 8 weeks ago. :(
 
Spoke to a developer friend in Bris yesterday.
They do land subdivisions and offer a house and land package ( via selected builders).
He was saying sales so far have been:
Jan 20 blocks
Feb 59 blocks
Mar 38 blocks
Apr 27 blocks

They're flat out, and everthing gets rented out immediately once its completed.

Qld and WA ..... let the good times roll :)

kp
 
I'm holding property in Zillmere and Bray park.

Zillmere is going really well atm up by about 10% in last 6mths. Zillmere is up about 100% from our 2001 purchase.

Bray Park still a little slower unless I've missed something recently.In Bray Park we are up 45% since 2003.

On the south side we are holding in Runcorn with nice gains recently. Up about 75% since 2000.

I love Brisbane! It gives me a warm inner glow!;)

All those flights up there every year are paying off!

MJK:D
 
Hey MJK...

Zillmere is on fire at the moment, there are a lot of developers moving into the area as LMR sites in chermside dry up or get too expensive for the return at sale... its pushing up the prices of standard 600m2+ blocks into no mans land - especially if they are zoned right. I am taking a punt but i reckon the next thing to go in there will be the 809m2 and above splitters. there isn't a big market for nice homes in there yet but it will come i believe once the developers run out of townhouse sites. T/house and unit prices have risen significantly in some pockets in the last few months so it will be interesting to see where it all leads.

re bray park - you haven't missed anything, its been traditionally a lower class suburb with some nice pockets and is quite old in somepockets as well with a lot of 50's and 60;s fibro jobs. There is some nice parts though and with the way things are going in Warner nearby its probably only a matter of time there too - still some very large sites going at reasonable prices...

good luck with it!!

cheers
UC
 
Hey MJK...

Zillmere is on fire at the moment, there are a lot of developers moving into the area as LMR sites in chermside dry up or get too expensive for the return at sale... its pushing up the prices of standard 600m2+ blocks into no mans land - especially if they are zoned right. I am taking a punt but i reckon the next thing to go in there will be the 809m2 and above splitters.



cheers
UC

UC,
I'm sitting on a old weatherboard 3 bdr on a 754sqm block. My understanding was that it is too small to split based on Brisbane rules because they have to be 400sqm each? Is this still the norm?

I'm not into developement but would like to think the block had the potential adding to its appeal.

MJK

MJK.
 
UC,
I'm sitting on a old weatherboard 3 bdr on a 754sqm block. My understanding was that it is too small to split based on Brisbane rules because they have to be 400sqm each? Is this still the norm?

I'm not into developement but would like to think the block had the potential adding to its appeal.

MJK

MJK.


i had a quick look at your block - the good news is you've made a fair bit in capital growth since you bought it.

re development...the block is Res A - which means you won't get a development on there. you could tart up the house etc and do well that way but in the pocket that it's in you will never get units/townhouses unfortunately - so the developers are out unless the whole pocket gets rezoned and i can't see that happening in the short term, but who knows!!

you are correct re the splitting rules - if you are outside a Demo control Precinct the minimum size to split is 809m2 (for BCC anyway). Inside a precinct you need a 900m2 (after the grace period finishes in about 18months or so). In short you won't be able to split either.

Where I think you'll do well, (and I'm not a property speculator or economist) based on previous experience is that once the developments slow down the next thing to happen is urban renewal with local shops and streetscapes getting face lifts etc and standard lots then become attractive as people move into the area - given that you have a large lot and not just a 600m2 is a bonus too. you are near a good shopping centre, the Gateway and heaps of schools, churches and services so you should continue to do well IMHO ;-)


hope this helps some!!

cheers
UC
 
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